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wxgeek's weather-Snow Forecast (Really)-Tues April 3
02 Apr 2012 07:08 #1
by RenegadeCJ
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
wxgeek's weather-Snow Forecast (Really)-Tues April 3 was created by RenegadeCJ
Tue Apr 3
Upper low currently spinning over northeast NM and will slowly drift into southeast CO this evening before heading into the OK/TX panhandle on Wednesday. This system is still not quire done with us, another batch of moisture beinf advected in from the southern Plains is moving across eastern CO and will move into the Metro area and foothills later this afternoon and evening, so we could still see another 1-3 inches of snow before this system exits on Wednesday morning. Roads have become warm enough with April sunshine to melt nearly all snow, but with new round of snow heading this way, roads could become slick again. This same system was responsible for a tornado outbreak across the Dallas - Fort Worth Metroplex this afternoon, have see reports of significant damage but fortunately no reports of serious injuries or deaths at this time.
Conditions should improve Wednesday with lingering morning snow/rain mostly across the eastern Plains. Should see mostly sunny skies and warmer temps by afternoon. Thursday and Friday will be dry across the state with temps back above seasonal norms. We could see some gusty westerly winds, especially Friday in advance of a cold front that will move across CO on Friday night. No precip expected with this system, but temps will cool down to near seasonal norms for the weekend under mostly sunny skies.
Long range models indicate a slight chance for some showers across eastern CO early next week, but likely nothing significant. Next more significant system looms for late next week into next weekend.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Mon Apr 2
Natures April Fools joke was a day late this year. Our memories of 80 degree temps will soon be replaced by the sound of snow plows and snow blowers. Upper low is currently centered just south of the 4 Corners region and all models agree the low will slowly move east across northern NM and into southeast CO by Tuesday before drifting east across southern KS on Wednesday. Cold front passage early this morning brought much cooler temps along with some upslope flow creating light snow across the foothills, which should continue into this evening. Snow level will continue to lower throughout the day today and be down to near Plains level by this evening. Models indicate snow will intensify this evening into tonight across all of eastern CO from the Divide east becoming moderate to heavy at times through Tuesday morning. Snow looks like it will continue all day on Tuesday and finally diminish Tuesday night. Snow level on Tuesday looks to be between 5500-6500 ft during the day. Liquid equivalent precipitation on all models between 1.0 and 1.5 inches through Wednesday morning. Even lowering the snow-water ratio for Spring to 10:1, this all points to a more significant snow event, especially in the foothills and Palmer Divide above 7000 ft. Thus, snow totals now looking like this between Monday morning and Wednesday morning
Foothills and Palmer Divide above 7000 ft: 6-12 inches with up to 16 inches for favored areas at higher elevations
Foothills below 7000 ft: 4-8 inches
Banana Belt Areas: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor above 5500 ft: 2-4 inches
Roads above 7000 ft could be getting slick by this evening and will likely be snow and ice packed for the Tuesday morning commute all the way down into the Urban Corridor. Roads will have some melting on Tuesday, but still could remain slick above 7000-8000 ft for the evening commute.
The caviet here is that even though all models agree on the track of this system, it is still a cutoff low, and they tend to go anywhere they want and not necessarily where we think they will, so if this system takes a different track, you can throw my forecast out the window. I certainly hope this system stays on track and provides us with some very welcome and abundant moisture.
Skies should clear and temps will rebound on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday look to remain dry, breezy at times with temps back above seasonal norms. Models still suggesting a cold front will pass trhough Friday night bringing temps for the upcoming weekend back to near seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Very good news today that winds have not developed as strong as models have indicated past few days. I believe the reason for this is that the upper trough is already beginning to slow down and become a closed circulation over UT today, so surface gradient and winds aloft not nearly as strong ahead of system in CO, even though it is still very warm and dry out.
The great news is that models now in good agreement that upper low will move into area just south of the 4 Corners region Monday morning, then drift slowly across NM into northeast NM Tuesday and western KS on Wednesday. This track, which is agreed upon by all but one model, would bring more precip to eastern CO as we would remain under moist upslope flow through Tuesday evening. So going with the greater concensus of models, here is what looks to happen at the surface: Cold front will move into western CO tonight and move across the foothills and Urban Corridor early Monday morning. Looks like precip will develop over the foothills and Urban Corridor Monday morning, sometime between 5 am and 8 am. Snow level will initially begin fairly high at 7500-8500 ft but lower during the day to near 5500-6500 ft by Monday evening. Currently looks like 1-3 inches possible during the day on Monday above 7000 ft, as most snow below that level will melt from warm temps this past week. With the latest track, it now looks like snow will continue Monday night into Tuesday evening with the snow level around 6000-7000 ft on Tuesday, with snow possible all the way down to 5500 ft. An additional 2-4 inches possible from Monday night into Tuesday evening above 6500 ft. Precip should end Turesday night and clear skies and warming temps on Wednesday. Roads will initially melt most of the snow that falls, but by late Monday afternoon into Tuesday roads above 7000 ft could become slick. Because this is still a cutoff low we are forecasting, there is still some uncertainty in the precip forecast. I would say a 75% probability of 3-6 inches of snow above 7000 ft, with a 15% probability of less than 3 inches, and a 10% probability of more than 7 inches. Either way, clouds, cool temps and some moisture will greatly help curb fire danger for at least a few days.
Wednesday through Friday look dry and temps back above seasonal norms before a cold front moves across the state Friday night and brings temps back near seasonal norms for the weekend, although no precip looks likely except for the northern mountrains from this system.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Upper low currently spinning over northeast NM and will slowly drift into southeast CO this evening before heading into the OK/TX panhandle on Wednesday. This system is still not quire done with us, another batch of moisture beinf advected in from the southern Plains is moving across eastern CO and will move into the Metro area and foothills later this afternoon and evening, so we could still see another 1-3 inches of snow before this system exits on Wednesday morning. Roads have become warm enough with April sunshine to melt nearly all snow, but with new round of snow heading this way, roads could become slick again. This same system was responsible for a tornado outbreak across the Dallas - Fort Worth Metroplex this afternoon, have see reports of significant damage but fortunately no reports of serious injuries or deaths at this time.
Conditions should improve Wednesday with lingering morning snow/rain mostly across the eastern Plains. Should see mostly sunny skies and warmer temps by afternoon. Thursday and Friday will be dry across the state with temps back above seasonal norms. We could see some gusty westerly winds, especially Friday in advance of a cold front that will move across CO on Friday night. No precip expected with this system, but temps will cool down to near seasonal norms for the weekend under mostly sunny skies.
Long range models indicate a slight chance for some showers across eastern CO early next week, but likely nothing significant. Next more significant system looms for late next week into next weekend.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Mon Apr 2
Natures April Fools joke was a day late this year. Our memories of 80 degree temps will soon be replaced by the sound of snow plows and snow blowers. Upper low is currently centered just south of the 4 Corners region and all models agree the low will slowly move east across northern NM and into southeast CO by Tuesday before drifting east across southern KS on Wednesday. Cold front passage early this morning brought much cooler temps along with some upslope flow creating light snow across the foothills, which should continue into this evening. Snow level will continue to lower throughout the day today and be down to near Plains level by this evening. Models indicate snow will intensify this evening into tonight across all of eastern CO from the Divide east becoming moderate to heavy at times through Tuesday morning. Snow looks like it will continue all day on Tuesday and finally diminish Tuesday night. Snow level on Tuesday looks to be between 5500-6500 ft during the day. Liquid equivalent precipitation on all models between 1.0 and 1.5 inches through Wednesday morning. Even lowering the snow-water ratio for Spring to 10:1, this all points to a more significant snow event, especially in the foothills and Palmer Divide above 7000 ft. Thus, snow totals now looking like this between Monday morning and Wednesday morning
Foothills and Palmer Divide above 7000 ft: 6-12 inches with up to 16 inches for favored areas at higher elevations
Foothills below 7000 ft: 4-8 inches
Banana Belt Areas: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor above 5500 ft: 2-4 inches
Roads above 7000 ft could be getting slick by this evening and will likely be snow and ice packed for the Tuesday morning commute all the way down into the Urban Corridor. Roads will have some melting on Tuesday, but still could remain slick above 7000-8000 ft for the evening commute.
The caviet here is that even though all models agree on the track of this system, it is still a cutoff low, and they tend to go anywhere they want and not necessarily where we think they will, so if this system takes a different track, you can throw my forecast out the window. I certainly hope this system stays on track and provides us with some very welcome and abundant moisture.
Skies should clear and temps will rebound on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday look to remain dry, breezy at times with temps back above seasonal norms. Models still suggesting a cold front will pass trhough Friday night bringing temps for the upcoming weekend back to near seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Very good news today that winds have not developed as strong as models have indicated past few days. I believe the reason for this is that the upper trough is already beginning to slow down and become a closed circulation over UT today, so surface gradient and winds aloft not nearly as strong ahead of system in CO, even though it is still very warm and dry out.
The great news is that models now in good agreement that upper low will move into area just south of the 4 Corners region Monday morning, then drift slowly across NM into northeast NM Tuesday and western KS on Wednesday. This track, which is agreed upon by all but one model, would bring more precip to eastern CO as we would remain under moist upslope flow through Tuesday evening. So going with the greater concensus of models, here is what looks to happen at the surface: Cold front will move into western CO tonight and move across the foothills and Urban Corridor early Monday morning. Looks like precip will develop over the foothills and Urban Corridor Monday morning, sometime between 5 am and 8 am. Snow level will initially begin fairly high at 7500-8500 ft but lower during the day to near 5500-6500 ft by Monday evening. Currently looks like 1-3 inches possible during the day on Monday above 7000 ft, as most snow below that level will melt from warm temps this past week. With the latest track, it now looks like snow will continue Monday night into Tuesday evening with the snow level around 6000-7000 ft on Tuesday, with snow possible all the way down to 5500 ft. An additional 2-4 inches possible from Monday night into Tuesday evening above 6500 ft. Precip should end Turesday night and clear skies and warming temps on Wednesday. Roads will initially melt most of the snow that falls, but by late Monday afternoon into Tuesday roads above 7000 ft could become slick. Because this is still a cutoff low we are forecasting, there is still some uncertainty in the precip forecast. I would say a 75% probability of 3-6 inches of snow above 7000 ft, with a 15% probability of less than 3 inches, and a 10% probability of more than 7 inches. Either way, clouds, cool temps and some moisture will greatly help curb fire danger for at least a few days.
Wednesday through Friday look dry and temps back above seasonal norms before a cold front moves across the state Friday night and brings temps back near seasonal norms for the weekend, although no precip looks likely except for the northern mountrains from this system.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
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