wxgeek's weather-Easter Forecast-Update Sun April 8

Sun Apr 8

Happ Easter to all. A beautiful day across CO today with plenty of sunshine, watrm temps and light winds. Monday should be a virtual repeat of Sunday.

Models are hinting at some low and mid level moisture making it's way into south central CO on Tuesday, leading to a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers creeping into the Palmer Divide and southern foothills, with an isolated thunderstorm possible and snow level above 12,000 ft. This moisture could slip east Tuesday night across the Urban Corridor and eastern Plains, but amounts would be very light if at all.

Wednesday looks like higher fire danger will return as southwest flow aloft increases and RH levels drop. The good news is that we are seeing a very early "green up" up to about 8000 ft so far, but areas in the forest without grass under tress has a lot of dry pine needles and slash, so ground fuels remain quite dry in forested areas. Areas above 8000 ft still have dry grass and not much snow left. Temps Wednesday will be well above seasonal norms, and south to southwest winds will pick up in the afternoon with speeds of 15-35 mph that should remain breezy overnight into Thursday morning. Thursday will also be warm and breezy, so fire danger will remain high.

We will begin to see a significant pattern change on Friday as deep upper trough along the west coast begins to move east. Moisture will begin moving into western CO Friday afternoon and night with showers west of the Divide and snow level 7000-8000 ft. Upper trough then moves over CO over the weekend and into early next week. Models still tweaking the track of the upper low, but current track takes it directly across southern CO, so precip should remain mostly west of the Diviude on Saturday, and then move into eastern CO Sunday and Monday with snow level 6000-7000 ft. This system has the potential to be a significant Spring snowstorm on Sunday and Monday across eastern CO including our foothills.

Models then keep CO mostly dry and warmer for the remainder of next week with the next chance for precip the following weekend.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Upper trough that is currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will move into the northern Rockies Friday. In advance of this system CO will see increasing south to southwest winds beginning this afternoon and continuing into Friday afternoon. Strongest winds in the foothills will be from midnight tonight through Friday at 6 pm. Wind speeds will be in the 20-45 mph range with some stronger gusts spossible. Combined with low RH values, fire concerns again on the rise. I personally think areas that received 4 or more inches of snow Tuesday will have a lower danger as ground fuels will have more moisture (so above 8000 ft). However, strong winds could casue power lines breaks that could easily start fires in trees and along the ground, and any fire that starts could spread very rapidly Friday, so heightened concern for all in the foothills, especially below 8000 ft.

Associated cold front will move through the foothills Friday evening, and winds should diminish behind cold front, and temps will lower and RH values will rise, so fire danger goes down Friday night. Saturday should be a lovely day, cool start but lots of sun and warmer temps back to near seasonal norms by afternoon with light winds. Sunday should be even better, with warmer temps under mostly sunny skies and light winds, so a great day to enjoy the outdoors and any Easter festivities.

For next week, Monday should be a repeat of Sunday. Tuesday could see soime fog and drizzle over the eastern Plains, but do not think that will affect areas west of I-25. Next chance for precip looks like Wednesday as a weak upper trough moves across the state. This system could bring showers and even an isolated thunderstorm to the mountains, foothills and Plains. Currently looks like snow level will be above 10,000 ft, so could be the first rain for many areas of the foothills this year, although amounts would be on the light side for areas that do receive any precip. Thursday and Friday next week should see a return to dry and warm conditions as an upper ridge moves over the state. Long range models indicate more precip chances next weekend as another upper trough moves across CO with better chances west of the Divide on Saturday, and then over the foothills and Plains on Sunday with snow level 6000-7000 ft Sunday, so more snow possible next weekend, and this pattern could continue into early the following week.

In spite of our recent warm weather, April remains the snowiest month climatologically in our foothills averaging 40 inches on Conifer Mountain, so a snowy or wet April is a typical April, and also helps keep the fire danger down.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for April 8 update