wxgeek's weather-Update Wed April 25

Wed Apr 25

Warm day with lots of mid and high clouds streaming over CO from a large upper trough off the west coast. Some isolated showers possible this afternoon and evening, but mostly just clouds.

A piece of energy is forecast to eject from the west coast upper trough and move across CO Thursday into Friday morning. Models have slowed the timing on this a bit, so any precip may start later Thursday afternoon and persist into Friday morning. Majority of precip will occur over the mountains west of the Divide with the southwest mountains receiving quite a bit of precip. Snow level looks to remain above 10,000 ft across the foothills, so looks like a liquid precip event for us. Showers and thunderstorms look likely by late afternoon and could persist overnight into Friday morning. Currently looks like 0.25 to 0.50 inches of precip possible across foothill areas. Some thunderstorms could approach severe limits with large hail and possible tornadoes over the eastern Plains by Thursday evening. In the foothills we could see some small hail and graupel from thunderstorms. This precip will help reduce fire danger a bit and with cooler weekend temps danger will be reduced, but our area remains quite dry still. With snow season all but over, we will now depend on showers and thunderstorms to provide much needed moisture. Unfortunately the bulk of our moisture does not come until Monsoon season which typically begins in early July. So we likely have a couple of months ahead of us with high fire danger prevailing.

Precip will end Friday morning with temps cooler on Friday under mostly sunny skies, but still a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Cold front moves through CO Friday night bringing temps back to near seasonal norms this weekend. Some isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible over the foothills, but limited precip amounts. Next week currently looks like a return to above average temps with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Seems we have transitioned to a summer pattern quite early this year.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Monday Apr 23

Very warm few days in store early this week as high temps will reach or exceed records for the date. Warm temps are the result of a pronounced upper ridge that has moved over the central Rockies. Some mid level moisture remains trapped under the ridge, so isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Wednesday. Any showers may produce gusty outflow winds, this coupled with possible lightning strikes and low RH values will keep fire danger high early this week.

Models remain consistent with an upper trough moving across CO on Thursday, which will significantly increase chances for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Snow level should remain above 10,000 ft, but atmosphere profile looks good to support the chance for severe thunderstorms Thu/Fri with the potential for large hail and tornadoes, especially east of I-25.

Models now only forecast showers this weekend, so less overall precip that previously anticipated. Precip totals now closer to a half inch which looks more reasonable. A cold front is still forecast to move through CO Friday night, so cooler temps this weekend, and snow levels could drop to 7000 ft or lower Saturday night/Sunday morning, although currently looks like limited moisture so no significant accumulations expected, but a dusting to an inch or so possible at higher elevations this weekend. Models then support additional precip early next week with snow level down to 7000-8000 ft.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for April 25 update