wxgeek's weather-Dry Pattern Continues-update 6/31

Thursday May 31

Slight chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today, mostly along the foothills and High Mountains along and east of the Divide. pretty limited moisture so primary threat from storms will be gusty outflow winds and small hail, but limited precip.

We will remain under northwest to west flow aloft into this weekend as an upper ridge builds into CO. Temps will be back to near seasonal norms on Friday, then well above for the weekend with high temps in the upper 80's to low 90's on the Plains, and 70's in the foothills. Another slight chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms along the foothills on Friday. Better chances to see showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon/evening from the High Country across the foothills and into the Plains. Storms still expected to be high based with limited low level moisture, but we could see some measurable precip in many areas on Saturday, although not likely enough to significantly lower fire danger. Sunday will be the warmest day, and any storms will likely be confined to the High Mountains, although we could see a few very isolated storms over the foothills, but mostly warm and dry.

Early next week an upper trough will move into the northern Rockies which will turn flow aloft to a southwesterly direction. This will keep temps above seasonal norms and keep isolated afternoon and evening convection confined to the High Country and higher foothill areas with limited precip. Winds could be gusty from the south to southwest with low RH values, so higher fire danger. We may also see a return of smoke from fires in NM and southwest CO early next week. Best chance for precip looks to be Tue or Wed next week when upper trough is closest to CO. Later next week upper ridge builds back in to keep temps warm and limit precip to the isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

So overall looks like a warn and dry start to June for us, which is not unusual. The Climate Prediction Center outlook for June - August is for temps to remain above seasonal norms and for precip to be near normal.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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In general, warm and dry pattern will persist over CO this week. Only a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms over the eastern Plains after midnight. An upper level trough will move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains on Wednesday which will create a slight chance for afternoon/evening showers or thunderstorms, mainly east of I-25 but a few isolated showers could pop up over the foothills, mostly north of I-70. This system will bring a good chance for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes into the Great Plains on Wednesday from the Dakotas south to Oklahoma. Anyone traveling into or through this area should be aware of severe storms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

As the upper trough moves to our east on Thursday, we will see cooler temps and some additional low level moisture from easterly flow as High pressure builds into the Plains. Very little chance for precip across CO on Thursday.

Upper ridge then builds into CO on Friday into the weekend which will increase temps back to or above seasonal norms and introduce a slight chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the High Country and foothills. No significant precip is expected through this coming weekend, so fire danger will continue to rise as ground fuels continue to dry out. Fortunately no high wind events look likely this week, so doubt if any Red Flag Warnings will be issued, but fire danger remains at high levels.

Long range models indicate an upper trough will dig into the Inter-Mountain region early next week, which will initially increase southwest flow aloft and then bring better chances for precip as energy ejects across CO on Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Monday could have Red Flag conditions with strong southwest winds and low RH values. The latter part of next week looks like warm and dry conditions return.

In general, June is not a particularly wet month for most of CO, but has the highest threat of severe weather. Long range models and climate models suggest we will see mostly dry conditions across CO for most of June. We could still see heavy showers or thunderstorms in specific locations, but overall the expectation is for below average precipitation and above normal temps for CO in June. The best we can hope for is a wet monsoon season this summer. The North American Monsoon typically begins in early to mid July, and persists into early to mid September. July and August are climatologically the wettest months of the year for the CO high country and foothills. there is no good prediction methods yet on how wet the monsoon will be each year, but some research has indicated that when we transition from La Nina conditions towards Neutral to El Nino conditions, there is the potential for a wetter than normal monsoon season. This makes scientific sense to me as warmer ocean temps build back towards the Central America and Mexico Pacific coast which adds potential energy for thunderstorms over this region, which eventually advects northward towards CO. Could just be wishful thinking as well, we will have to wait and see.

Lastly, since smoke from fires in NM and southwest Co caused a lot of concern this past Saturday, winds aloft expected to be west to northwest this week, so I doubt we will see any impact from these fires this week. As flow aloft turns southwesterly early next week, we could see a return of some smoke over the area from these fires. Whitewater-Baldy fire in NM now at 133,000 acres and 0% containment, so this fire will be burning for quite a while. Sunrise Mine fire (near Paradox) at 5300 acres and 30% containment, while the Little Sand (NW of Pagosa Springs) fire is at 2600 acres and 0% containment. Whitewater-Baldy and Little Sand fires currently putting out the most smoke as they are burning in dense wooded areas.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".