wxgeek's weather-Severe Weather Threat Today

Frontal boundary has moved into the Front Range area this morning, basically aligned along US 85 (Sante Fe) with dry northerly winds west of the boundary and moist southerly winds east of the boundary. I actually rode my bike through the boundary on my way to work this morning and could feel the moisture difference. Storms will initially develop along and east of this boundary, which is expected to move slightly east to about the I-25 corridor by 3 pm today, which is about the time storms will begin to develop. In addition, a Denver Cyclone is likely to form which will create another convergence zone basically along I-76 later this afternoon. Majority of activity will be north of I-70, but could see some storms south to the Palmer Divide.

So, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening along these boundaries, and will move to the northeast at 15-30 mph. Primary threat is large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) and strong outflow winds of 50-70 mph. Tornadoes are possible but because storms will likely be high based, funnel clouds much more likely than tornadoes reaching the ground, but yet it is still possible. Storms likely to persist up until about midnight over the eastern Plains.

For the foothills, we are in the drier northerly flow behind the front, so thunderstorms are less likely, although still possible when storms form along the aforementioned boundaries, storms could back build westward into cooler and drier air. Any storms that do form along the foothills will likely not be severe, but could still contain small hail, strong outflow winds and lightning. Heaviest precip will be in stronger storms east of I-25.

So as SpazCat mentioned in his post, be aware of developing storms today, and expect severe thunderstorm warnings, so stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local TV/radio to know where threats exist, and if outdoors, know where to take shelter if a severe storm is approaching.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

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