After 2 consecutive days of severe weather across eastern CO, we should see much tamer conditions today and into the weekend. Eastern CO still has very high dew points today (upper 50's to low 60's) so there is an abundance of low level moisture, but as drier and warmer air aloft moves from west to east across the state today, thunderstorm activity should be much more isolated and remain east of I-25. However, any storms that do develop could be quite strong over the eastern Plains.
The primary concern for the weekend is fire weather on Saturday. As an upper trough begins to move from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies, upper flow aloft will increase from the southwest beginning this afternoon and persist into Saturday evening. At the surface, south to southwest winds of 15-35 mph, with some gusts to 50 mph will prevail across most of CO on Saturday. This will combine with very warm temps, very low RH values to create dangerous fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is currently in effect for much of western CO, and expect this will be continued for areas west of the Divide for Saturday, with a Fire Weather Watch in effect for Saturday for areas east of the Divide to the foothills. For areas that have received rainfall recently, fire starts probably not an issue, but if a fire were to start in areas that are drier, there could be rapid growth due to strong winds, low RH values and high temps. No precip is expected across CO on Saturday.
A cold front associated with the aforementioned upper trough will move across CO Saturday night, so temps will lower, RH values increase and winds decrease on Sunday. Surface winds actually turn to northeast Sunday, so could even see some low clouds over the Urban Corridor and foothills early Sunday morning. Only very isolated afternoon/evening showers possible Sunday east of the Divide, no precip west of the Divide..
For next week, weak upper ridge remains over the state which will bring temps back above seasonal norms by Tuesday through Friday. We will have a chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day next week, but any precip will remain isolated and on the light side. Long range models build a stronger upper ridge over CO next weekend into the following week, which would continue the warm and dry pattern.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
