Another bad day to be a firefighter. Temps already in the mid to upper 90's on the Plains with 100 at Sterling at noon. Many record high temps will be recoded today, and this is combined with single digit RH values. The only good news is that winds are below 15 mph in most locations, although stronger winds are likely this afternoon and evening from the southwest.
Tuesday will see similar conditions again, although temps may be 3-7 degrees lower, but still quite warm with very low RH values and winds could become quite gusty from the southwest to west in the afternoon. An upper trough will pass to the north of CO on Tuesday, which will drag a weak (and dry) cold front through the state Tuesday evening/night. The cold front may allow some showers/thunderstorms to form over the far northeast corner of the state Tuesday evening, but will remain dry elsewhere. The front will also allow temps to cool back to near seasonal norms on Wednesday and bring in higher RH values with a northeast wind on Wednesday, so lower fire danger.
Upper ridge then builds back over CO, anchored in the central/southern Plains. Temps will be back well above seasonal norms on Thursday and remain above normal through the weekend. Models indicate little if any precipitation is expected through the upcoming weekend, with the best chances over the High Country on Sunday and Monday. South to southwest winds could once again increase Friday into Sunday, which may cause more red flag warnings to be issued.
In lieu of curing stupidity, which seems very unlikely in the human race, it appears our best chances to curtail the extremely dangerous fire conditions rests on the shoulders of mother nature. This translates for us in Colorado to the onset of the North American Monsoon. This pattern normally makes it's entrance in early to mid July, and advects moisture from Mexico north into the Inter-Mountain West and enhances our afternoon and evening shower and thunderstrom activity with precipitation. In the foothills, July and August are the two wettest months of the year from a climatological standpoint, with 2-3 inches of precipitation each month. It's hard to predict when the monsoon season will begin and how strong it will be, but long range models suggest a good monsoon pattern will appear in early July. I certainly hope the models are correct and we begin to see much needed moisture as soon as possible. I will be tracking the progress of the monsoon and will advise when it looks near. Until then, we need to help curb human stupidity, at least temporarily. Any activity that has even a remote chance to create an ignition source needs to be curtailed, which includes, but not limited to chain saws, off road vehicles, discharging firearms (especially at propane tanks), and any open fires.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
