Another hot day with Reg Flag Warnings. I don't think I have ever seen this many consecutive days with Reg Flag Warnings. Temp has already reached 100 degress at DIA, so this ties the Denver record for most consecutive 100 degree days at 5. Denver also tied the all time high temp with a 105 recorded on Monday, which also set a new record high temp for the moth of June. This combined today with more single digit RH values and gusty south to southwest winds is another bad day for fire fighters. Wind direction today favors fire growth to the north and northeast primarily, but fires can also move to the northwest, especially if terrain favors that direction. Flow aloft from the south to southwest which will likely bring some limited monsoonal moisture into the High Country which will aid shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Storms may move into the foothills and adjacent Plains by late afternoon into evening. Storms will likely contain only limited precip due to very dry lower levels, but will contain gusty outflow winds and lightning, so bigger concern will be new fire starts due to lightning strikes. Around my property it is about the driest I have ever seen since 2006.
Wednesday looks like better chances for seeing measurable precipitation from afternoon/evening storms from the High Country across the foothills and into the Plains as we get a better surge of monsoon moisture from the southwest. Temps will still be hot, so breaking the 100 degree mark for a 6th consecutive day will be questionable with the additional cloud cover expected on Wednesday, but it will be close. Winds on Wednesday look to be mostly from the southwest, shifting to more westerly by Wednesday evening. Once again, storms on Wednesday will bring more gusty outflow winds and lightning, although hopefully some measurable precipitation as well.
Thursday looks to be very similar to Wednesday, with a decent chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms building over the High Country and moving east across the foothills and into the Plains. Winds look mostly westerly and could turn from the northwest by Thursday evening.
By Friday the upper ridge will begin to decrease in intensity a bit and move into southern AZ. This will bring a more westerly flow aloft to CO which will inhibit any monsoonal moisture, so precip chances look very low Friday through Sunday, and temps will remain very warm with readings 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. We may not be in the 100's on the Plains, but easily mid to upper 90's. RH values will remain very low with gusty afternoon winds, so more red flag conditions likely Friday through Sunday.
Unfortunately no real relief from the hot and dry weather in the extended outlook. Even though the monsoon has officially begun in Tucson, models don't predict a good mechanism to transport that moisture into CO for at least the next 3-7 days.
Tropical Storm Debby nearing the northwest Florida coast and is now beginning to move consistently to the east northeast. TPC models predict the storm to move across northern FL on Wednesday on a track through Gainsville. Winds really not that strong at 40-45 mph, but very heavy rains will continue until the storm moves off into the Atlantic. I'm normally not envious of much in Florida, but right now I would sure like some of their rain for CO. Some areas in FL have received 20 inches of rain over the past 72 hours.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
