wxgeek's weather- Monsoon Flow to Continue-Update Aug 1

Update Wednesday August 1

Upper level High remains parked over west Texas which is allowing a good monsoon flow to continue across the Desert Southwest and CO. A upper low, which apparently has a gambling problem, is parked over Las Vegas and is enhancing the monsoon flow into CO. Hence, another round of storms on tap for today and Thursday across most of CO.

An upper trough will begin to move into the northern Rockies on Friday which will create stronger westerly flow aloft, and keep most convection confined to southeast and south central CO on Friday. This system will drag a cold front into eastern CO Friday night, which will usher in some upslope flow with the potential for low clouds over the Plains and up against the foothills Friday night into early Saturday morning. There is also a chance for isolated thunderstorms associated with the cold frontal passage Friday night along the foothills and Plains. Saturday will be cooler in the wake of the cold front, but afternoon and evening storms are possible over the foothills and adjacent Plains. Sunday should be warmer with temps back to or above seasonal norms, and then a chance for afternoon and evening storms from the High Country to the foothills and Plains.

Medium range models continue to suggest that the upper High will eventually move into NM and then the 4 Cornrs region next week. If this happens, flow aloft becomes northwesterly over CO and will limit afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the more isolated variety and favor the High Country. The foothills could still see some precip from storms, but likely not as much as this past week. Long range models then keep the upper ridge over the Great Basin as an upper trough develops over the Great Lakes region. If this pattern develops, our monsoon moisture would essentially be cut off for the first half of August. This is unfortunately what has happened the past 2 years, after a wet July, monsoon shuts off in August and we're back to dry conditions in late AUgust and September which creates a second surge in our fire season. I am hoping the models do not have this pegged correctly this year.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Monday July 30

Good round of thunderstorms affecting the foothills and Plains today, with some severe thunderstorms and areas of very heavy rain. Storms should end this evening.

We should see another round of storms on Tuesday, although likely a little bit less precip than Monday. Upper High currently over the TX panhandle is forecast to drift slowly westward into NM later this week, which will limit our monsoon flow as flow aloft becomes more westerly. From Wednesday through Friday we will be limited to isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with majority of activity west of the Divide. We still could see some light precip in foothill and Urban Corridor areas though. Temps should remain warm under drier conditions.

By this weekend, an upper level trough will move across the northern Rockies and drag a cold front into northern CO by Saturday morning, so temps should be slightly cooler this weekend. Post cold frontal upslope low level flow may help trigger storms along the foothills and Urban Corridor Saturday afternoon and evening. Long range models then build upper ridge back into AZ/NM next week, which would limit monsoon moisture into CO, but keep temps at or above seasonal norms.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Just back from my 18th year at the EAA Air Venture Air Show at Oshkosh, WI. Always fun to be around so many great aircraft and pilots, although it's a long and tough week of work. Some highlights from the week were meeting some of the remaining Tuskegee Airmen from WWII and seeing a B-17 and B-29 flying together over the field. Had a squall on Thursday that flipped a biplane on top of another aircraft, but otherwise another successful show at KOSH.

Upper level high currentliy centered over OK, which is providing a good flow from the Gulf of Mexico into northern Mexico and then northward into CO. This southwest flow pattern should continue into early next week, so afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be likely through about next Tuesday. Models have the upper high drifting slowly westward into the TX panhandle early next week and then into NM by late next week. As the upper high drifts into NM the flow aloft over CO turns more westerly, which will limit moisture and precip to just isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms, with less precip. Temps will remain warm with the upper high and warm air aloft being close to CO.

So far this month, I have recorded 3.05 inches of precip on Conifer Mountain, which is above average and much needed. Hopefully the monsoon will continue well into August. The past 2 years the monsoon has been very weak into mid to late August, which has created dry conditions into September, which is our second high fire danger period in CO. During my time at Oshkosh this past week talked with several people about the bad drought in the central part of the U.S. Many older folks have not seen such dry conditions since the great Dust Bowl of the 1930's. Initial indications from NOAA indicate that this July will set the all time hottest July on record in the U.S., surpassing the current record of July 1936. On July 12 of this year Death Valley recorded the hottest average daily temp ever recorded in the world, with 117.5 deg F. The high was 128 and the low was an astounding 107, which is the hottest low temp ever recorded in the world. Yes, our planet is getting warmer.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Monday July 30 update

Bump for Wed Aug 1 update