Upper level ridge currently centered over NM and models continue to move the ridge westward this week into the 4 Corners region. This pattern will keep monsoon moisture south of CO and CO will experience a drier northwesterly flow aloft. This will keep temps at or above seasonal norms this week, and limit precip from afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Most convective activity will be over the higher terrain west of the Divide this week, although a few storms may drift over the foothills, but precip from any of these storms is expected to be light. Although fire bans have recently been lifted, everyone needs to be very diligent with open flames of any kind, as some areas that have not received as much recent precip remain quite dry.
Long range models continue this pattern next week as well, keeping the upper ridge over AZ which keeps a drier northwest flow aloft over CO. Looking at the Atlantic and Caribbean basins, looks like easterly wave activity is beginning to heat up, so some of these disturbances may become tropical storms and/or hurricanes over the next two weeks. August and September tend to be the most active period for tropical systems. However, with the building El Nino, activity in the Atlantic/Caribbean is likely to be less than what was previously expected. Activity in the eastern Pacific where sea surface temps are rising will be on the increase.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
