wxgeek's weather-Heavy Rain Possible Today

An upper level disturbance currently located in southwest UT will move across CO today, and bring likely chances of thunderstorms and heavy rain to a large portion of the state. Precip should move into western CO late this morning and afternoon, where a Flash Fllod Watch is in effect for the southwest and central mountains. Precip should move into the foothills and Plains by late afternoon and evening with some activity persisting into the late night hours. Models predicting between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain for some areas, so we could see a good soaking with the potential for some localized flooding. Thunderstorms will be likely and may contain small hail along with strong outflow winds and frequent lightning. Atmosphere profile looks quite moist and unstable today, with precipitable water over an inch and a lifted index near zero. Storm motion will be from the west southwest today. Be advised that during heavy showers and storms, roads may have significant water, so please be aware and drive with caution as hydroplaning is a definite possibility.

Precip chances are forecast to shift to the south central and southeast portion of the state on Friday, although some showers and thunderstorms still possible south of I-70 Friday, although precip will be on the lighter side.

For the weekend, upper ridge will build back into the 4 corners region which will have temps on the rise, especially Sunday and early next week. Mostly dry conditions expected on Saturday, with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday from the High Country to the foothills. Position of the upper ridge will keep shower and thundrstorm chances favoring the High Country early next week, although some showers will be possible over the foothills, but precip amounts expected to be mostly light. Models forecast the upper ridge to slowly move east into west TX by the end of next week, which will increase precip chances as monsoon flow is better oriented into CO.

Tropical Storm Issac has formed in the eastern Caribbean and is forecast to move on a west northwesterly track that would bring the system across southern Haiti and eastern Cuba and then enter the Florida Straights by Sunday. Models predict Issac to become a category 1 hurricane as it approaches southern FL sunday night, although if the track stays over land for a significant amount of time, it could take much of the strength away from Issac. Models then predict Issac will move north along the west coast of Florida on Monday and be just west of Tampa by Monday night. Issac could bring very heavy rain and strong winds to much of Florida. Not sure whether Issac or the start of the RNC will procuce more blowing hot air. Issac is then forecast to move into northern FL on Tuesday and along the southeast and mid Atlantic coast Wednesday into Thursday of next week.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

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Been getting a good soaker here in Bailey today.