wxgeek's weather-Weather Outlook Update Monday Oct 1

Update Mon Oct 1

Weak short wave in northerly flow aloft caused some clouds and sprinkes this morning, but we should see drier air and warmer temps tonight into Wednesday. As the Rex block (a block in the upper level pattern with an upper High north of an upper Low to the south) forms in the eastern Pacific, the storm track will have systems moving from Alaska southeast over western Canada into the northern Rockies later this week. The first system will push a cold front into northern CO Wednesday evening and bring a slight chance for showers to northeast CO, including the foothills and Palmer Divide Wednesday evening and night. Snow level could drop to near 6000 ft Wednesday night, although the system currently looks very dry, so no more than a dusting currently expected. Temps likely to drop below freezing most areas Thursday morning. Temps to remain cool but dry on Thursday.

A second system is expected to follow the same track and move through CO on Friday. This system will bring even cooler temps, and slightly more moisture from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Snow level with this system looks to be down to Plains level, so the Urban Corridor may see their first snow with this system. Once again, limited moisture so amounts would likely be a dusting for most areas, with maybe an inch or two at higher elevations in the foothills. Flurries or showers may persist through teh day on Saturday into Saturday night, with temps remaining cool. Another good chance for below freezing temps Sunday morning.

Models then move the Rex blcok slightly east early next week, which puts CO under a drier and warmer pattern from Sunday into the middle of next week.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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A few showers possible today along the foothills under northerly flow aloft. Any precip will be light today.

The first week of October will start out dry and mild under northerly flow aloft. A Rex block will form in the eastern Pacific this week keeping the storm track to our north. So Monday and Tuesday will be mostly sunny and mild. Models now consistent in bringing a vigerous upper level trough into the northern Rockies on Wednesday, which will push a cold front into northern CO Wednesday afternoon. This front may produce some showers and light precip across northeast CO Wednesday afternoon and evening, with most precip staying north of I-70, although some precip possible south to the Palmer Divide and southern foothills. Snow level will drop dramatically by Wednesday evening, with snow possible down to about 6500-7000 ft, although any amounts expected to be quite light, so only a dusting possible, but could be the first snow of the season seen in many areas. Thursday morning could be below freezing in many areas for the first time since Spring.

The remainder of the week looks to be dry with temps near seasonal norms. This pattern should persist into next weekend as well with mostly sunny skies and mild temps. Next chance for precip according to long range models is the middle of the following week.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong". w

Bump for Oct 1 update