wxgeek's weather-Cold and Snow on the way

Update Fri Oct 5

Oops, sure did not see the snow we got this morning coming. Still amazes me how models can be that wrong within 24 hours of an event. A much stronger upper level short wave trough and cold front swung down across northeast CO this morning and brought the seasons first snow to the area. Most areas reveived less than 1 to 1.5 inches, but enough to snarl the commute as most everyone, including CDOT and myself was caught off guard.

So, moving forward and assuming current observations match model output, we are currently seeing a good upslope push of cold air across northeast CO bringing low clouds up against the foothills, so visibilities will be reduced in areas along 285 today into tonight and Saturday morning. Next upper level short wave trough currently in MT and is expected to rapidly move south into WY later today and into northeast CO early Saturday morning. This should increase snow chances across most of northeast CO tonight into Saturday morning, mostly north of the Palmer Divide and east of the Continental Divide. Snow amounts look similar to today, with most areas from a trace to an inch. Heaviest snowfall looks to be across the far northeast Plains, where 1-4 inches are possible. For our foothills, light snow with the chane for some freezing drizzle mixed in tonight into Saturday morning, with accumulations generally less than 1 inch. With cold air in place much of today, roads could easily become slick with any additional snow. Precip should end by late morning across the foothills and Urban Corridor, but could presist into late afternoon across the far eastern Plains and southern CO. Very cold temps on tap for Sunday morning, with low 20's in the foothills, and upper 20's on the Plains.

We should see much more sun on Sunday with a slow warming trend. Early next week continues to look mild and dry as upper low from the Rex block in the Pacific moves into southern CA and becomes a cutof low. Model guidance keeps the upper low over southern CA through Thursday, and then kicks it out across CO Friday into Saturday. If this occurs, we could see some significant precip late next week into next weekend. Snow level currently looks to be fairly high with this system, so somewhere between 8000 to 10,000 ft, hence higher foothills areas could see additional snow, and amounts could be decent.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong

---

Update Wed Oct 3

Pretty good early season snowstorm across the northern Rockies today and will move into the northern Plains overnight. Cold front associated with upper trough currently in central WY and will continue to push south into CO later this afternoon. Front should be near the WY/CO border around 3 pm, and near the I-70 corridor by 6 pm, and into southern CO after midnight. Gusty north winds expected as the front passes, in the 20-45 mph range, which could cause some blowing dust issues, especially east of I-25. Temps will drop rapidly after frontal passage, and we may see some low clouds develop across the Plains and up against the foothills, although moisture is pretty limited south of the WY border with this system. Isolated drizzle and showers possible, but no real precip accumulation expected in CO with this system. Snow level will drop to between 6000 and 7000 ft tonight, but doubt we will see any snow outside of a few stray flakes. Freezing drizzle may be more likely in the foothills than snow tonight. With warm temps this week, do not expect any issues with roads and highways.

Thursday will remain cool with some low clouds possible over the Plains and against the foothills, especially before noon.

Next push of Canadian air will move south into CO on Friday afternoon. Models now in better agreement that more moisture will accompany this system, with decent northeast upslope flow developing Friday late afternoon or evening, and persisting into Saturday morning. This will translate into snow becoming likely Friday evening into Saturday morning for the Plains and foothills west to the Divide. Snow level will begin around 6000-7000 ft Friday afternoon, lowering to Plains level Friday night. Accummulations look to remain on the light side, with 1/2 to 1 inch at lower elevations, and 1-2 inches above 7000 ft. Snow will develop across all of eastern CO, but heaviest amounts north of the Palmer Divide. Snow should persist into Saturday morning, dissipating after about noon. Clouds with a mix of sun in the afternoon. Temps on Saturday not expected to make it out of the 30's in the foothills, with areas above 8000 ft to remain in the low to mid 30's. Low 40's for the Plains on Saturday. Snow may accumulate on roads Friday night into Saturday morning, especially above 7000 ft, so we could see slick conditions for the first time this season. Any snow should melt off roads by later Saturday morning after sunrise. Temps Saturday night should fall below freezing most areas, with temps in the mid to upper 20's possible at higher elevations.

Slow warming trend on Sunday under mostly sunny skies. Temps should be back near seasonal norms by Monday under mostly sunny skies. Forecast for next week still uncertain, as models offering differing solutions on the track of an upper level low, forecast to become a cutoff low over southern CA early next week. If upper low remains over CA, dry and mild weather for CO. Once the low decides to eject to the northeast, CO will see clouds and precip. Just not certain when the uper low will decide to move on at this point. Could be the middle to latter part of next week, or it could wait until next weekend or the week after.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for oct 5 update

Dang - It must be rifle/elk season