wxgeek's weather-Dry pattern to persist-Update Nov 25

Update Sun Nov 25

Sunny and breezy day on tap today, as an upper level trough passes to our north. This system will bring snow to MT, WY, Sd and NE today into Monday, but all precip looks like it will remain north of CO. A cold front will push south into eastern CO Monday cooling temps back to near seasonal norms. Upper ridge then builds back into CO Tuesday and Wednesday warming temps back above seasonal norms, and shielding the state from any precip. A weak upper level system will pass across CO on Wednesday night/Thursday which may bring a chance for some snow showers to the mountains west of the Divide, but little accumulation expected. More dry weather and mild temps expected through the weekend east of the Divide. Slight chance for isolated snow showers west of the Divide over the weekend, but little if any accumulation expected. General pattern keeps an upper trough in the eastern Pacific, but an upper ridge over the Inter-Mountain west, so as systems bring precip to the West Coast, they lose strength and dry out as they move east. This pattern now appears to remain in place through early December, with little hope for any snow to areas east of the Divide in CO.

No need to harp too much on this, but November will be the driest on record for many areas of CO. Fire danger now in the HIGH range as ground fuels have dried out, and with no snow on the ground, any fire starts have the potential for moderate to rapid growth as relative humidity values are seasonally low. Any wind then brings conditions close to red flag criteria until we have some snow on the ground. Currently does not look like that will be the case through mid December, so everyone needs to be as diligent with ignition sources now as we were back in March through June.

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Dry Pattern to Persist into Early December

I hope everyone had a very enjoyable Turkey Day with friends and family, and able to reflect on what we have to be thankful for.

It appears we can all be thankful for the pleasant weather across our state for those traveling, and our thanks will presist into next week.

Latest model guidance now has the following forecast for us. Today will be very nice, lots of sun and light winds. Saturday will be warmer and sunny, although some westerly winds of 10-20 mph may kick up from late tonight into Saturday afternoon. Sunday will see more sun and mild temps across the state. Some clouds may increase over the far northern portions of the state, and we may see some mountain wave clouds Sunday afternoon. For Monday, models now keep the upper trough from the Pacifc Northwest well to our north and east, so chances for any precip have greatly diminished for Monday. Now looks like any precip will be limited to the WY border area on Monday. Cold front will still push south into CO, so cooler temps on track for Monday, but upper ridge will build back into CO next week, so dry and mild conditions expected through at least Friday, with temps back well above seasonal norms for Tuesday through Friday.

There is some hope in longer range models that suggest we could see some snow by next weekend move into the state west of the Divide on Sunday, with a chance of precip pushing east to about the Front Range crest, so a line from Longs Peak south to Mt. Evans and Kenosha Pass on Monday. Snow level would be about 6500-7500 ft Monday. GFS is now suggesting the potential for a more significant storm for esatern CO next Tuesday (Dec 4) as an upper trough digs into northern NM creating a good upslope storm. Still a long ways off to get too excited over, but in general the long range models have been projecting a better pattern in December for snow for CO, with an upper level trough replavcing our persistent upper ridge. Hopefully this will translate to a snowy December for us, as we certainly need the moisture.
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