wxgeek's weather-Dry & Breezy Now, Cold/Snow possible nxt wk

Update Wed Nov 28

Mild and dry weather to persist across CO through the weekend. Some high clouds and mountain wave clouds will exist from time to time as weak disturbances move to our north in brisk westerly flow aloft. Deluge of precip will continue along the West Coast this week into the weekend.

Some light flurries may visit the central and northern mountains Friday night, but only very light if any accumulation expected. CO will see another weak disturbance bring more light snow to the mountains Sunday night into Monday, with accumulations again on the light side. For our foothills, Sunday will be a dangerous fire weather day, with very low RH values, temps 10-20 degrees above normal and southwesterly winds of 20-45 mph developing during the day, so Red Flag Warnings a good bet for Sunday across the foothills and adjacent Plains. Cold front moves through Sunday night with cooler temps and higher RH values, but no precip. Monday will be cooler with breezy westerly winds at times.

Models now keep conditions dry and mild next week into Wednesday, then begin to bring a series of systems into CO as the upper ridge which has dominated our weather pattern in November begins to migrate eastward, and the upper trough over the eastern Pacific moves into the western U.S. First disturbance in this series will bring snow to western CO Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with snow moving east into the foothills and Plains during the day on Thursday. Accumulations look light east of the Divide, but at least it looks like moisture on the ground at last. Flurries may persist into Friday morning, then dry and cool later in the day on Friday. Next chance for snow in CO looks to be the following week, Tuesday into Thursday, and again the following weekend. So in general a more optimistic outlook for snow for Colorado in December. However, the trend I have seen this year so far is for the long range models to look more optimistic at longer time frames, and then more pessimistic at shorter time frames. I believe this has a lot to do with the location of the upper ridge the past month, so hopefully if that feature actually does move east, we will see more moisture in our future.

Until that happens, fire danger will remain high to critical, so extra diligence is needed by everyone.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Upper ridge persists over CO through Friday, causing temps well above seasonal norms with breezy and dry conditions across the state, and elevated fire danger. West Coast will get pounded with rain and snow at higher elevations this week, so anyone wanting to ski on real snow will need to head west, where some resorts in CA, OR and WA will have 3-6 feet of base by the end of this week.

Long range models have begun to show some hope for a change in our persistent upper ridge, beginning Sunday night as a strong Pacific storm pushes east into CO. The bad news is that as this system approaches, strong westerly winds and low RH values will combine to create Red Flag conditions on Sunday into Sunday night over eastern CO, including our foothills. Clouds will increase Sunday night bringing snow to western CO west of the Divide Sunday night into Monday. Cold front moves across CO Monday bringing much cooler temps across the state. Currently looks like precip will remain west of the Divide, with only a slight chance for flurries in the fooithills on Monday, but a good storm for the mountains. Strong westerly winds continue on Monday, so a Bora wind event with cool temps. Temps look to remain much closer to seasonal norms next week, before more percip chances move back into the state by late next week and weekend. In general, long range models keep an upper trough over the western U.S. as we move into December, so cooler temps and better snow chances seem more lilkely for CO now in December.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Nov 28 update