Another mild and breezy day on tap for today. Models now in better agreement for our Friday system. Upper level trough will move across the state on Friday, tracking along the NM/CO border. Biggest impact will be snow in the southwest mountains, where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Friday, with 10-20 inches of snow expected. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the central mountains Friday for 4-8 inches of snow. Snow level for this system expected to be 6000-7000 ft. Snow will begin early Friday morning in southwest CO, and move east during the day. For eastern CO, snow will be possible after about noon through the evening. Models indicate an inverted lee side trough forming, which typically limits snowfall for the foothills and western Urban Corridor, as westerly winds force downslope flow, drying things out. Flow aloft will be southerly, so I'm not as convinced the inverted lee trough will form, but do feel snow amounts in the foothills will be light. Possible for the eastern Plains to see more snow than the foothills with this system. Snow amounts in the foothills look to be from a dusting to 2 inches south of I-70, lesser amounts farther north. For the Plains, 1-3 inches possible, although with higher snow levels initially, Plains may see more rain than snow. Snow more likely after 5 pm Friday for the Plains. Snow flurries to continue west of the Divide overnight Friday. In general, mountains will see nearly non-stop snow from Friday through Sunday.
Another fast moving upper trough will move across the state on Saturday. Snow will increase Saturday morning west of the Divide, and move east Saturday afternoon and evening. Snow will be possible in the foothills and Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, but amounts expected to be light again, so from a dusting to 2 inches. Flurries likely to persist overnight Saturday west of the Divide. Could see some strong westerly winds overnight Saturday into Sunday morning in the foothills and adjacent Plains, so any snow accumulation could cause some drifting and blowing issues Saturday night into Sunday morning.
For Sunday, mountains west of the Divide will see some additional snow, maybe 1-3 inches, but foothills and Plains should remain breezy but dry, with slightly warmer temps. Monday should be very similar to Sunday, more snow in the mountains, dry east of the Divide.
For next week, additional snow chances across the state on Wednesday and Friday, then mostly dry next weekend into early the following week. Long range models create a chance for snow again on Christmas day and again later in that week. Global upper level pattern looks to remain in place through the end of December, allowing storms to move from the Pacific into CO. Holiday skiers should be enjoying lots of new snow. West Coast ski resorts now reporting 50-70 inch bases, with Mt. Baker in WA reporting a whopping 126 inch base, while most CO resorts still in the 18-36 inch range, but with daily new snow, skiers should be happy.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
