wxgeek's weather- More Mtn Snow-Foothills Storm Possible Wed

Update Sun Dec 16

Snow picking up in the mountains this afternoon as yet another short wave upper trough moves across CO. Snow may push east to the Front Range Crest, and western foothills this afternoon and evening, but with flow aloft remaining westerly, any accumulation would be light in the foothills and adjacent Plains. In the mountains, conditions will become difficult from this afternoon into Monday morning as snow combines with very strong westerly winds of 30-60 mph, causing near blizzard conditions. Strong westerly winds will also push into the foothills from this evening into Monday morning, with speeds of 25-50 mph likely.

Snow will continue Monday west of the Divide, but lighten in intensity and remain mostly north of I-70. Strong westerly winds will persist causing more blowing and drifting snow and lower visibilities. In the foothills we will see breezy to windy westerly winds, but remain dry on Monday with temps near seasonal norms.

Focus then turns to a developing upper trough that will move into the Great Basin on Tuesday. Flow aloft will become southwesterly across CO on Tuesday and remain strong, so expect strong southwest winds across the mountains and foothills on Tuesday. Snow will increase across northwest CO on Tuesday as upper trough approaches. Associated cold front will push south across CO Tuesday night, with upslope flow developing across eastern CO by early Wednesday morning. Snow will continue across western CO Tuesday night, and move into eastern CO by Wednesday morning. Snow should persist east of the Divide all day Wednesday, so a good upslope snow event for the foothills and Plains. Snow amounts still tough to pin down, but right now I would say this system has the potential to drop 5-12 inches over the foothills, and 4-8 inches over the Urban Corridor and Plains. Upslope flow will persist up to about 12,000 to 14,000 ft, but westerly flow will remain above that. Snow should end by Wednesday evening for eastern CO.

Thursday through Sunday then looks mostly dry with seasonal temps and occasional gusty westerly winds across the state, maybe some mountain snow on Sunday. Next system is forecast to affect all of CO next Tuesday/Wednesday, so the potential for snow on Christmas day, and then more snow chances next weekend.

Great news for ski areas and for water concerns with our recent mountains snow. Wolf Creek Ski area picked up 42 inches of snow over the past 72 hours, with current system focused more on the northern and central mountains, so ski areas beginning to open up more areas with better coverage. Hopefully upcoming systems can add moisture to our foothills and Plains that is badly needed.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Current system moving through CO bringing more snow to the mountains, and some precip along the foothills and Plains this afternoon, although any accumulation east of the Divide will be light. Snow should diminish some overnight in the mountains, but will intensify once again on Sunday. Some snow may push east to the foothills and adjacent plains, but any accumulation east of the Divide would once again be light on Sunday. Mountain snow amounts on Sunday could be significant, with a Winter Storm Warning out for the northern mountains, and Winter Weather Advisory for the central mountains, where 5-12 inches of additrional accumulation is expected. Travel through the high country could be difficult at times on Sunday.

Snow will continue at times Monday into Tuesday west of the Divide, especially in the northern mountains. Perhaps 1-3 inches possible each day, mostly across west facing slopes, lighter amounts in mountain valleys. Monday and Tuesday should be mostly dry east of the Divide, with slightly warmer temps.

Models next bring a developing system into CO Tuesday night into Wednesday. Latest runs intensify this system and develop a surface low over southeast CO on Wednesday and bring a cold front south through the state. This combination should develop a decent upslope flow for eastern CO on Wednesday. Latest forecats would bring snow into western CO Tuesday night, and bring the snow east by Wednesday morning, with snow persistsing all day on Wednesday in the foothills and plains, along with cold temps. If models have a handle on this system, we could see up to a foot of snow in some favored foothill locations by Wednesday night. Still too early to have much confidence in snow amounts, but currently looks pretty promising for a good upslope snow event for eastern CO.

Models thing build a short wave ridge across CO late next week into next weekend, so mostly dry and mild across the state. Longer range models then bring more snow chances into CO beginning xmas day, with more chances later in the week. Currently looking very likely for a white Christmas across most of CO, with a chance we will see snow on Christmas day, which does not happen all that often.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Dec 16 update