wxgeek's weather-Last Wk of December-Update 12/27

Update Thu Dec 27

Decent mountain snow continuing, with ski areas picking up an additional 3-9 inches yesterday and overnight. Snow will pick up again today west of the Divide as second upper level short wave trough moves across CO today. Most mountain areas will pick up another 3-8 inches of snow through tonight. Latest model runs showing slightly better chances for accumulating snow in the foothills and adjacent plains later today. Best chances for snow in our foothills looks to be from 3 pm to 9 pm, with a dusting to maybe 2 inches for the more favored locations. Snow should end by around midnight to 3 am.

Friday should be mostly dry, outside of a few lingering mountain flurries west of the Divide. Saturday looks dry across the state with temps still at or below seasonal norms. Next system to affect CO will bring mountain snow beginning late Sunday and persisting into Monday. Currently looks like snow will stay on the west side of the Divide, with only a few flurries possible for the foothills on Monday. New Years day looks to be dry across the state with fair weather prevailing into most of next week.

The blizzard across the eastern U.S. now affecting the northeast U.S. and eastern Great lakes and will move slowly northeast today, exiting the U.S. by Friday. Travel delays and flight cancellations possible today from the New York area northward. Rain/snow line currently just inland, so currently raining at JFK, LGA and BOS while snow and sleet affecting PIT, ALB, BUF.

So it appears we will end December with another month of below average snowfall. Year to date snowfall on Conifer Mountains stands at 24 inches, which is well below the average of 70 inches at this point in the season, and further below last years 80 inches we had at this time. With only about a third of our average snowfall to date, it will be hard to recover unless we have a very wet Spring. The latest climate outlook for our area indicates above normal temps and below average precipitation for the Jan-Mar period. Unless we see a large amount of snow in the Mar-May period, it could be a another worrisome early fire season. For skiers, most CO resorts now reporting 22-55 inches of snow, which is not great, but hard core skiers can make the best of it as long as there is some fresh powder on top. Looking around the country, CA now has the highest base of 170 inches at Sugar Bowl along the I-80 corridor. WA resorts reporting up to 130-160 inches and UT resorts in the 36-65 inch range.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Always good to return home, after a nice visit with family and friends. Also nice that we finally have some snow cover, albeit kinda thin, but certainly better than bare ground this time of year.

Upper level trough will move from the west coast into CO in 2 distinct pieces over the next 3 days. First piece of energy will move into CO later today and bring snow to the mountains west of the Divide from this afternoon into tonight. Winter Weather Advisories currently in place through Thursday night for the mountains, where 6-12 inches expected over the next 72 hours. Second piece of energy move through on Thursday, which will keep snow going in the mountains into Thursday night or early Friday morning. Currently does not look like much, if any, snow will make it much farther east. We will likely see some flurries or light snow on Thursday into Thursday night in the foothills, but accumulations look like less than an inch for most areas, and as little as a dusting for many areas. Temps look to remain at or below seasonal norms through New Years Day.

Friday and Saturday should be mostly dry across the state, with maybe some high mountain flurries. Next system drops southeast across CO on Sunday/Monday, which will bring a new round of snow to the high country, with a chance for some light snow or flurries to the foothills and adjacent Plains on Sunday night into Monday. Again, not much in the way of any accumulation for the foothills.

Should be dry across the state for New Years day, and into next week as an upper ridge begins to build across the western U.S. Next chance for precip would be late next week. In general, long range models indicate a long wave ridge may be forming over the western U.S., so our precip looks like it will slow down in early January.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Dec 27 update