wxgeek's weather-Arctic Weekend Weather

Update Fri Jan 11

Current system brought snow and wind to the mountains, and held together just enough to drop and inch or so of snow to foothill and Urban areas. Still strong westerly winds which are causing some blowing and drifting of snow, expecially west of the the Divide.

Cold front has passed through, so temps will continue to drop through the day and into tonight. Winds will begin to diminish this evening and should become light on Saturday. Majority of energy will move off to the northeast, leaving CO under very cold arctic air this weekend. Upper trough will remain over CO however, so there will be enough instability to generate isolated snow showers and flurries Saturday and Sunday. Mostly over the mountains, but some showers could develop over the foothills and adjacent plains. Outside of the mountains, little if any additional accumulation expected from thsi activity, likely a quick dusting to maybe an inch in heavier showers.

Cold temps and dangerously low wind chill values the big concern for the weekend. High temps expected to remain in the single digits mountains and foothills, with teens on the plains. Low temps in the -10 to -25 range in the mountains, 0 to -15 in the foothills and 5 to -5 on the plains this weekend, so any wind creates some very low wind chill values that could endanger pets and livestock left outside.

Models indicate upper trough will move east on Tuesday, so temps will begin to warm through the remainder of next week. Could be some strong westerly winds Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, dry conditions with temps back near seasonal norms for next week into next weekend. Precip is looking scarce through the end of January at this point.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Lots of high clouds streaming into CO today in advance of a large upper trough that is currently over NV. Southwest winds aloft will increase ahead of this system, so expect south to westerly winds of 20-45 mph to increase this afternoon and overnight into Friday morning. High Wind Warning has been issued across much of south central and southeast CO. Cold front currently in eastern NV will move into western CO tonight, where snow will begin this evening and persist overnight. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings in effect for CO mountains west of the Divide for tonight into Friday evening. 6-12 inches of snow expected for the central and northern mountains, and 10-20 inches possible in the southwest mountains from this system, which will be accompanied by 30-60 mph winds at higher elevations, so whiteout conditions are expected tonight into Friday across the high country, which will make travel across CO difficult to impossible.

For the foothills, cold front will move through our area around 6 am on Friday. In advance, strong southwest winds of 20-45 mph with stronger gusts possible tonight into Friday morning. As the upper low and surface low remain north of our area, no upslope flow is forecast, so snow will be scarce. Snow will make it east to about the Front Range Crest by Friday morning as cold front moves east. Western foothills may see some blowoff snow and flurries as front passes, but currently do not expect more than an inch of accumulation for foothill areas, with some areas not seeing any accumulation. Better chances across the far northeast plains Friday for accumulating snow as you get farther away from downslope winds. Winds will shift to west to northwest after cold frontal passage but remain strong through the day on Friday, as temps drop. Highest temp for the day on Friday will be right after midnight, as temps will steadily drop after cold frontal passage. Some flurries will be possible Friday evening and night, but no accumulation expected.

The big event with this system will be the cold temps east of the Divide. From about noon on Friday until Tuesday, most areas will not see temps above freezing. High temps on Saturday and Sunday not expected to make it out of single digits in the foothills, teens for the Plains. Low temps Saturday and Sunday night will be from 0 to -15 deg F. These temps will be accompanied by winds of 5-15 mph, so wind chill values in the -10 to -25 deg F range this weekend. Any pets or livestock that normally remain outdoors, may need shelter from the cold this weekend. Frozen pipes may also occur where pipes are not well insulated. Some flurries may be possible Saturday evening/night, but again no accumulation expected. Mountains may see some light accumulations Saturday and Sunday.

For the Broncos game, mostly cloudy but no snow outside of a few light flurries expected during the game. Temp at kickoff around 15 deg F, dropping to around 10 deg F by the end of the game. Winds should be light from the northeast at 3-7 mph, but wind chill values near zero. Tough day to be a QB or receiver, and kicking a football in these temps is like kicking a block of concrete.

Weather for next week will see increasing temps by Tuesday under mostly clear skies as an upper ridge builds back over the western US. No precip currently expected across the state from Tuesday through next weekend. Long range models continue to paint a rather dry picture through the end of January, with a chance for a few systems later in the month, but nothing of significance at this time. We have had several times over the past 20 years with less than 10 inches of snow in January, so being dry in CO in January is not unusual. The hope is that we get some good Spring snows, otherwise it will be a very bad fire season for us.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Friday Jan 11 update