wxgeek's weather-Dry and Mild Week Ahead-Update Jan 22

Update Tue Jan 22

Warm, breezy and dry across the state today, with some areas in high fire danger as snow has melted and ground fuels are very dry. Upper ridge will continue to move across CO on Wednesday, so temps even warmer. High temps expected to be near 70 degrees Wednesday along the Urban Corridor, so near record warmth and temps 20-30 degrees above seasonal norms. On the flip side, areas of the northern Plains and Great Lakes are experiencing extreme cold, with high temps struggling to get above zero and wind chill values of -20 to -40 deg F. All depends on which side of the jet stream you live.

Weak upper trough and associated cold front still expected to move through CO on Thursday, which will cool temps and bring a chance for light snow west of the Divide. Maybe 1-2 inches possible on west facing slopes. Friday should see warmer temps and dry conditions back across the state.

For the weekend and early next week things get more interesting. A sub-tropical upper trough is expected to move into the desert southwest Friday and across CO Saturday. This feature will bring mid and high clouds across CO from Friday afternoon into Saturday. Models are now indicating there will be a chance for precipitation across portions of western and southern CO Friday night into Saturday. Snow level looks to be above 8000 ft, with best chances for precip west of the Divide, and south of US 50 farther east. Southwest mountains will likely receive the most snow from this, with maybe 3-6 inches, and lower amounts elsewhere. Foothills will likely just see clouds, and maybe a few showers, but no accumulation expected. Skies should clear on Sunday with warmer temps ahead of our next system.

Models now in much better agreement on the system for next week. They have taken a compromise approach from their solutions yesterday. If only politicians could take this same approach. Models now bring a vigorous upper trough from the Pacific into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, then into CA on Monday, and dig it into AZ on Tuesday and move across CO and into the southern Plains by Wednesday. At the surface, precip would move into western CO on Monday, with the snow level 6000-7000 ft. Snow would move east on Tuesday to encompass all of CO, with some upslope flow developing over eastern CO as a surface low forms in southeast CO. Snow to persist overnight Tuesday over eastern CO and then clear out Wednesday. If this scenario were to come true, foothills and adjacent Plains could see a decent amount of snow, with the mountains receiving quite a bit. I will keep my fingers crossed that the models have a handle on this system, as we need to moisture badly. Some concerns with any system taking this track is that it moves too far north or south, or cuts off over CA or AZ, which would leave us with much less precip. I will continue to watch the evolution and keep everyone appraised.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sun Jan 20

Another sunny day across CO today, with some breezy winds at times. Upper trough to our north will drag a cold front back across northeast CO later today, so temps on the northeast plains may go down after front passes, along with gusty northerly winds. For the foothills, don't believe cold front will have much impact, and westerly winds will prevail above 7000 ft.

The rest of the week will feature dry conditions statewide with temps 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms, with temps approaching record high temps mid week. This is all a result of a large and stubborn upper ridge anchored along the west coast. Some breezy westerly winds at times this week. Snow pack is dwindling under these dry and warm conditions. A weak upper level trough will move through tough upper ridge by late in the week, which will bring cooler temps to CO by Thursday as a cold front moves across the state, but no precip is forecast at this time. Most we could get from this system is a few mountain flurries across the northern mountains.

According to medium range models, next chance for precip is Sunday to Tuesday next week. Already beginning to see some timing and track differences between the GFS and ECMWF models, but both dig an upper trough along the west coast next weekend and then move it east across CO/NM. If the system holds together as current models suggest, it could be a significant snow event for most of CO, and especially eastern CO. Will have to wait and see how this feature progresses during the week. We are currently at 1.0 inch of snow for January, so well below our average of 15 inches on Conifer Mountain. Hopefully we receive some decent snow next week to avoid a record dry month once again.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Just back from Memphis, where I got to experience a two day ice storm (freezing rain) this week, pretty messy, although the ribs and fried chicken made everything better, along with some good blues music on Beale Street.

Large upper ridge that has been wintering along the west coast shows no signs of wanting to move on any time soon. Storm track well into Canada and then the Great Lakes. A system will skirt well to our north this weekend, but arctic high pressure behind the system will attempt to drag a back door cold front into eastern CO on Sunday. Currently looks like only the far eastern Plains will see any affect from this, so more dry and mild weather across CO for the weekend, and into next week.

Another system is forecast to skirt to our north late next week, so may cool things down a bit and bring a few mountain flurries, but not much beyond that for next week. Mostly sunny and dry weather, with some breezy westerly winds at times. Temps mostly 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms.

Next chance for any precip according to medium range models will be late next weekend into early the following week as a system is forecast to dig across CO from the northwest. Currently looks pretty promising, but I have seen too many of those this year that have fizzled, so will wait and see how things progress next week.

For the time being, enjoy the sunny and mild weather, and hope we have a snowy spring.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Jan 20 update

Bump for Jan 22 update