wxgeek's weather-Cool, breezy w/ some snow-Update 2/14

Update Thu Feb 14

Happy Valentine's Day to everyone, and hope you have a safe drive home for those on the road. Snow has moved into eastern CO behind a cold front moving down from the north. Northeast upslope flow will keep snow going across the Plains and foothills into tonight, as snow gradually moves south. Snow likely to linger up against the foothills. Generally expecting 1-3 inches for the foothills and Palmer Divide areas, 1/2 to 2 inches for the Metro area and plains. Evening commute will be slick in areas, and expect areas of ice underneath snow as initial snow has melted on many roadways. Visibility will also be reduced in foothill areas. Snow should gradually taper off after midnight and move into southern CO. A second surge will increase snow on Friday, but primarily west of the Divide. Foothill areas may see some flurries on Friday, but little if any additional accumulation expected. Mountains could see an additional 3-6 inches on Friday. Gusty westerly winds also possible Friday night into Saturday morning, so potential for blowing and drifting snow.

Warmer temps and abundant sunshine for most of the coming weekend. Next system will move into western CO Sunday afternoon, with snow becoming likely Sunday evening west of the Divide, and move east into the foothills and Plains Sunday night. This will be a fast moving system, so snow amounts for the foothills look to be in the 1-3 inch range again, with 5-10 inches possible for mountain areas west of the Divide. Snow should clear out by noon on Monday. Monday morning commute could be slick.

Next Tuesday will be a break day before a potentially stronger system arrives next Wednesday. Models in fairly good agreement this far out, so confidence in this system rising. Models bring a strong upper trough across southern CO Wednesday into Thursday. Snow will spread across western CO Wednesday morning and move east into the foothills and plains by Wednesday afternoon. Models develop a deep surface low over southeast CO so this would provide a good upslope flow for eastern CO. Snow could become heavy Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then taper off to flurries through Thursday evening. This system has the potential to drop 6-12 inches over eastern CO if it develops as models currently suggest. Still a ways off so models could change quite a bit, but residents should begin to track how this system develops, as it could become even stronger. Longer range models continue to suggest we will see additional storms track across CO next weekend into the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Feb 13

Partly couldy and breezy today, with some snow in the northern mountains, mostly north of I-70. Decent mountain wave has formed along teh Front Range, so some areas could see westerly winds in the 15-35 mph range, with higher gusts farther west. A systemn to our north will drag a cold front through CO tonight, which will increase snow in the mountains west of the Divide overnight. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the northern mountains for 6-12 inches of snow through Friday morning. Strong westerly winds will create tough travel conditions tonight into Friday morning over the mountains. The cold front will enable some upslope flow to form along the Urban Corridor and foothills on Thursday, increasing chances for snow from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Best chances appear to be from late Thursday afternoon til about midnight. Amounts should generally be in the 1-3 inch range for foothills and Plains, with most areas in the lower end of that range. Mountains should continue to see snow into late Friday morning, then gradually clear in the afternoon. Strong westerly winds are possible Friday night into Saturday morning.

The weekend will see warmer temps and mostly sunny conditions, with breezy westerly winds at times. Next system will approach from the northwest Sunday afternoon, and bring snow to the mountains by Sunday afternoon/evening. This system looks stronger, and models currently bring decent snow into the foothills and Plains Sunday night into Monday. Currently looks like maybe 2-5 inches possible for the foothills, so the Monday morning commute could be slow. Models continue to point to a potentially stronger system the middle of next week, Wednesday into Thursday. Still too early to confirm the track, so as usual if the system stays farther south, more snow for eastern CO, while if it slides farther north, less snow. In either case, mountains should get a good dumping Wednesday into Friday morning. Potential for a 5-10 inch storm for the foothills and Plains if the track stays favorable, so will continue to monitor this system. In general, models continue to paint a pattern that favors fairly frequent storms from the northwest moving across CO through the end of February.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Light snow and flurries will persist across the mountains and foothills today, with most activity south of I-70. Plains should remain dry. somewhere between a dusting and 3 inches possible across the foothills, with highest amounts farther south. As the upper level trough moves east across northern NM Tuesday, precip should be limited to southeast CO on Tuesday, with partly cloudy skies elsewhere while temps remain on the cool side. As this system moves east, we could see some gusty west to northwest winds late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, which could cause some blowing or drifting of our recent snow. Also, significant snow event on tap for Tuesday across the TX and OK panhandle and northwest OK, with up to 6 inches of snow forecast for some areas. As this system moves farther east, decent snow event for the mid Atlantic states and Northeast on Wednesday.

We will see a slight warmup on Wednesday under mostly sunny skies, before another cold front brings cooler temps and a chance for some additional snow Thursday. Some model differences still exist on this system, with the GFS bringing the most snow, while the NAM and ECMWF keep most of the snow north of CO. I would go with snow likely across the northern Mountains Thursday with a chance for snow across the foothills north of the Palmer Divide and northeast Plains north of I-70. Any amounts Thursday would be on the light side if we see snow, but colder temps. Some lingering flurries Friday morning with temps below seasonal norms.

We should see a warmup and mostly sunny skies for the coming weekend. Next system to bring precip would be Sunday night into Monday. This system would affect all of CO under current model guidance with mostly light amounts. A potentially more significant system is being touted by the models for Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Will wait and see how that evolves, but in general the longer range model guidance suggest we could see more frequent storms over the next 7-14 days, with the potential for one of these to be a bigger snow event as an upper ridge builds into the eastern Pacific and a upper trough resides over the western U.S., so that we get storms dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska into the Rockies. February appears to be shaping up much more like December when we had more frequent storms. We already have 9.5 inches of snow in February, which was more than we received in January and November combined. However , our current season total of 40 inches is woefully below our average. By the end of February, our average snowfall is 118 inches. Last year at this point we had received 130 inches of snow. Basically this is the driest start to the snow season on record (since 1993). We definitely need a big storm to put some moisture on the ground.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Feb 14 update