wxgeek's weather-Warm/Breezy Weekend, some snowUpdate Feb 17

Update Sun Feb 17

Warm and breezy day ahead today, with increasing clouds through the day. Weak upper trough will pass north of CO later today and bring a chance for snow across the central and northern mountains by this evening into tonight. Foothills may see some light snow, but any accumulation expected to be light, so anywhere from a dusting to an inch or two, with most areas closer to the dusting, and some areas may see no snow at all. Monday will be breezy and cool, with some lingering flurries in the mountains possible. Red Flag warning in effect today for much of southeast CO.

Now on to the next system, which looked promising earlier, and now has fallen into the pattern for this year of looking like another bust. This will be a pretty powerful system, but models are indicating that the way the system tracks and develops will not bring much snow to our foothills. Mountains will get a fair amount of snow, and far eastern plains may see decent amounts, but for the foothills currently looks like a few inches at best. This system will track from the Pacific Northwest down the west coast and then swing inland across southern NV on Tuesday and then east across northern AZ and NM Wednesday and then re-develop across western KS on Thursday. Normally this kind of track would bring decent snow to eastern CO, but the flow aloft remains southerly then quickly shifts to westerly, so no real upslope is currently indicated by models. The mountains will get good lift from the upper torugh on Wednesday, and the far eastern Plains may see good wrap around snow Thursday and Gulf of Mexico moisture is being brought in from the south ahead of this system. Unfortunately for the foothills and adjacent plains, looks like another bust for snow. If we see any snow, it would be Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Latest amount would be in the 1-3 inch range for foothill areas. Mountains likely to see 6-12 inches and far eastern plains may see 4-8 inches with blizzard conditions possible.

Snow is possible Friday into Saturday, mostly across the mountains west of the Divide. Next potential system for foothill snow looks to be next weekend. Will just have to wait and see how this one fizzles out. Models then indicate an upper rudge to begin building back along the west coast which would dry up things for CO in early March.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Snow tapering off except for some flurries in the mountains today. Strong west to northwest winds will increase this afternoon into tonight across the mountains and foothills, as high pressure builds into western CO. Wind speeds in the 20-45 mph with higher gusts possible tonight into Saturday morning. Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible, especially across prone areas like South Park, and along C-470 and CO93.

The weekend will see warmer temps back to or above seasonal norms, with breezy westerly winds at times, but mostly sunny skies.

Next system will take aim at CO Sunday evening into Monday. Another system moving quickly from the northwest will bring snow to western CO Sunday evening, with snow spreading east to the foothills and plains late Sunday night into Monday morning. Quick hitting storm so snow amounts will be on the light side, with 1/2 to 2 inches expected across the foothills and plains. Mountains will receive 4-8 inches as it currently looks, mostly central and northern mountains.

We will see a break on Tuesday, and then brace for a more powerful system. Latest models have a more southern track which would bring a bigger snow event to eastern CO Wednesday into Thursday next week. Deep upper trough will move across the central and southern Rockies next week, and develop a deep surface low over southeast CO. Snow looks to move into western CO Wednesday morning, and move east into the foothills and plains by Wednesday afternoon. Snow to become heavy Wednesday night into Thursday morning across eastern CO. If models have a handle on this, we could see 6-12 inches of snow in the foothills and plains. Snow would continue in the mountains Thursday into Friday, before the next system approaches to bring snow to all of CO next weekend, with more snow on track for the following week. Upper level pattern looks to remain locked through the end of February allowing storms to move from the Gulf of Alaska into CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Feb 17 update