wxgeek's weather-More snow this wknd & next wk-Update 2/22

Update Fri Feb 22

A few snow showers beginning to pop up along the foothills. These should persist into the evening, with mostly less of an inch of accumulation expected, although up to 2 inches possible under heavy showers. Most activity will be over the southwest and south central areas of CO. Showers should end by midnight and be mostly clear skies across the state by Saturday morning.

Our next system is expected to arrive Saturday into Sunday across the state. Latest model runs show the NAM and GFS trending towards the slower and deeper ECMWF solution, so this translates to higher snow amounts for eastern CO. Snow should move into western CO during the day on Saturday, with the mountains picking up 5-10 inches of snow Saturday into Sunday. Snow will move east to the foothills and plains by Saturday evening/night. Timing still not certain, but snow likely to begin sometime between 6 pm and midnight Saturday in the foothills. Snow looks to become heavy at times overnight into Sunday morning for the foothills and plains. Snow will gradually move south and east by Sunday evening, with snow dissipating after noon Sunday along the foothills and Urban Corridor, persisting through 6 pm across the plains. Forecast snow amount now looking like 2-6 inches for the foothills and Urban Corridor, and 1-4 inches for the plains. If this system slows down further and deepens more like the Euro model suggests, snow amounts could be even higher. By Sunday night a strong northerly flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradient are forecast which will create very strong north to northwest winds, likely to cause significant blowing and drifting of recent snow, so some highways prone to drifting snow could be difficult to impossible to travel, such as US 285 through South Park and CO 93. As this system moves east, more problems for the central Plains with heavy snow forecast for areas of KS, NE, IA and MO Sunday night into Monday.

Monday should be a break day before the next system arrives on Tuesday. Snow spreads across pretty much the entire state during the day on Tuesday, with amounts generally in the 1-3 inch range. Wednesday is another break day before yet another system from the northwest moves across the state on Thursday, bringing generally light snow to most areas of the state. Friday the upper ridge begins to build over the western U.S. so our snow and cold will come to an end, replaced with dry and warm conditions through the first week of March.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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So amounts from our last storm were from 2-6 inches most locations, some reports up to 8-10 inches. We are all thankful for the moisture.

Friday should see partly to mostly cloudy conditions as a very weak upper level trough moves down from the northwest. Mountains may see an additional 1-3 inches of snow west of the Divide, and foothills may see some snow showers, so a dusting up to an inch is possible Friday afternoon. Plains should remain dry.

Saturday will start out nice, but another upper level trough will approach CO from the northwest. Models still differing on the track and timing of this system, as the NAM and GFS bring a fast moving trough through, while the Euro is slower, deeper and takes a more southerly track. I will base my forecast on the GFS, which would bring snow into western CO Saturday afternoon, and then move snow into the foothills by Saturday evening and continue overnight into Sunday morning. Mountains will receive the brunt of this system, with 5-10 inches possible. Foothills look to receive 1-4 inches, and adjacent plains maybe 1-2 inches. Some flurries may persist into Sunday afternoon, especially mountains. Sunday could also be rather blustery, with cold temps and gusty westerly winds at times. Note that is the Euro model solution is correct, we could see much higher snow amounts across eastern CO. Hopefully models converge soon.

Monday should see mostly dry conditions with warmer temps, near seasonal norms. Next system is forecast to move into CO next Tuesday/Wednesday. Once again, model differences abound. GFS is faster and drier, Euro is slower and wetter. Will have to wait and see which one prevails, but expect more snow chances next week, although the amounts look fairly light at this point. After this system, I begin to get a little concerned. Models have been predicting for a while that a large upper level ridge will become entrenched over the western U.S. This will create dry conditions and bring temps some 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms by next weekend and into the following week. This pattern is eerily similar to what transpired last March, when we only received 2 inches of snow for the month, and witnessed the devastating Lower North Fork Fire towards the end of March. This happened after we received nearly 150 inches of snow through February of last year. We are currently at 48.5 inches for this season, so you understand why I am getting concerned if we have a dry March. Long range models keep us dry and warm through the second week of March.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".