wxgeek's weather-Weekend snow forecast-updated Sun 2/24

Update Sun Feb 24

What a wonderful snowy Sunday. Storm is coming together very nicely with upper level low currently in the 4 corners region, and surface low developing over the TX panhandle, ideal upslope scenario. Latest models have the upper level low moving slowly east across northern NM through the day, and surface low staying put in the TX panhandle. This means snow will continue through the day today, heavy at times, and persist into tonight, with snow finally ending by early Monday morning. Based on latest model data and duration, I believe snow totals will be higher than previously thought. Currently at 8 inches on Conifer Mountain at 9:30 am, so new storm snow totals through Monday morning as follows:

Foothills and Palmer Divide: 8-16 inches
Banana Belt: 5-10 inches
Urban Corridor: 6-12 inches
Plains: 5-10 inches

Northerly winds will increase later today as surface low deepens so lots of blowing and drifting of snow and blizzard conditions to exist into tonight.

Driving anywhere today will be challenging, so unless there is a urgent need to be somewhere, staying inside definitely the better option. Monday morning commute will be slow and slick, so allow ample extra time.

Monday should be mostly sunny and cool, and breezy in the morning with winds calming down by afternoon. Next system still on track for Tuesday across the state. Looks like amounts of 1-3 inches for the mountains, and 1/2 to 2 inches for the foothills and plains. Strong northwest winds behind this system, so more blowing and drifting of snow Tuesday night. Thursday system now looks much weaker, so may only bring some light snow to areas west of the Divide. Then upper level ridge builds in and will create dry and mild conditions into early March.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sat Feb 23-Afternoon

NWS has just upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the foothills and Urban Corridor from midnight tonight until 5 pm Sunday. Snow amounts are forecast at 7-14 inches in the warning area. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for the eastern plains from 2 am Sunday to 5 pm Sunday. Snow amounts of 5-12 inches expected in the warning area with northerly winds of 20-45 mph.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sat Feb 23

Modles have come into good agreement last few runs, so bigger storm now on tap for Sunday across eastern CO. Upper level trough will move from the NV into the 4 Corners region by Sunday monring, then track east across northern NM Sunday and into thre southern Plains by Monday. This track is now slower and deeper as the Euro suggested during the week, hence snow start will be delayed a bit but higher amounts nore forecast across eastern CO. NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the foothills and Metro Area, with a Blizzard Watch for east central plains for Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of western CO west of the Divide from this evening into Sunday. NWS will have to change the watches to eitehr a warning or advisory later today. I suspect they will end up issuing Winter Storm Warnings for foothills and adjacent Urban Corridor, and Winter Weather Advisories elsewhere, as Blizzard criteria borderline for this system, but NWS tends to err on conservative side, so we could see Blizzard Warnings for the plains.

So here is how the forecast is shaping up.... Snow will move into western CO west of the Divide this afternoon, becoming heavy at times this evening and tonight. Snow will spread east into the foothills and plains after midnight, becoming heavy at times Sunday morning into Sunday afternon. Snow begins to dissipate Sunday evening foothills and Urban Corridor, and after midnight farther east on the plains. Some strong northerly winds of 20-45 mph expected to accompany this system, especially east of I-25 Sunday afternoon, hence the blizzard watch. STronmg northerly winds likely to exist over the foothills by Sunday evening as well, so lots of blowing and drifting of snow Sunday evening and night. NAM model suggest over a foot of snow in some areas, while the GFS has lower snow totals. My totals closer to GFS model, so amounts could be higher is the NAM solution is more accurate. Highest snow amounts in eastern CO will be north of the Palmer Divide. Now on to snow totals:

Mountains west of the Divide: 6-12 inches
Foothills: 4-9 inches, with up to a foot in favored areas (Conifer Mountain, Shadow Mountain, Pleasant Park)
Banana Belt: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor: 3-7 inches
plains: 2-6 inches, but drifts of 2-3 feet possible

Travel across CO from tonight into Sunday night could be difficult to impossible at times. Expect the Monday morning commute to be slow and slick.

Next system still on track for Tuesday across the state, with a few inches of snow likely. Some snow also possible Thursday then upper level ridge will build across the entire western U.S. to create dry and mild consitions to start March.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Sun Feb 24 Update