wxgeek's weather-some snow then dry/warm wknd-Update Feb 26

Update Tue Feb 26

System moving into CO a little ahead of schedule bringing snow into the foothills and northern Metro area this morning. Models a little more robust with snow amounts now, especially in the foothills and Palmer Divide, so snow will continue through the day today and into tonight, dissipating after midnight. Evening commute could be slow and slick. Morning commute was beginning to get slick along 285, especially through Turkey Creek Canyon. East of C-470 not much snow on the ground this morning. Snow amounts look like this:

Mountains: 4-8 inches (Winter Weather Advisory in effect)
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-3 inches (highest west of I-25 and south of I-70)
Plains: 1-2 inches

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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As we dig out from Sundays storm that dumped as much as 2 feet of snow to foothill areas, today will provide lots of solar assistance with melting. Amounts generally in the 5-12 inch range across the Urban Corridor, and 2-6 inches across the plains. Next system on track to move through CO on Tuesday, bringing light snow to the mountains Tuesday morning, and moving into the foothills and plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. Looks like generally lights amounts, with 1-3 inches in the mountains, and 1/2 to 2 inches across the foothills and plains, as flow looks to remain northwesterly, so no real upslope component, but enough instability and lift to generate snow. Snow should be out of the foothills by midnight Tuesday. Some strong west to northwest winds may follow this system Tuesday night, so chances for blowing and drifting snow across roads Tuesday night, especially the typically prone routes.

Wednesday should be mostly sunny and dry across the state. Next system moves across CO Thursday, but snow looks more limited with this system. Majority of snow will fall west of the Divide, with some isolated showers possible across the foothills and Urban Corridor Thursday afternoon/evening. Any accumulation expected to less than an inch over the foothills, with maybe 1-2 inches possible over the mountains.

Latest medium range models not as bold with the upper ridge along the west coast in early March now. This coming weekend still looks dry and mild, with temps above seasonal norms and lots of sunshine, but next week now has the potential for snow Monday/Tuesday, and again the following weekend. This is a big change from the previous long range models that kept a very strong upper ridge across the western U.S. into the middle of March. So good news that we may see some additional moisture in early March.

Our latest storm has brought the seasonal snow total to 72 inches, which is a much improved 75% of normal snowfall at the end of February.

Lastly, as our big storm moves east, winter storm and blizzard warning are in effect across the TX and OK Panhandle, as well as large portions of western OK and KS. Up to a foot of snow expected across these regions by tonight. Farther east, severe weather becomes a possibility across the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. This system will continue to move northeast and bring snow to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes later this week.

Bump for Feb 26 Update