wxgeek's weather-Spme snow- Dry/warmer wk-Update 3/12

Update Tuesday March 12

Well, that was a busted forecast. Apparently the models took issue with my discussion yesterday regarding how much better the European models have become, and wanted to show how bad they could actually be, and they were pretty bad. Hopefully no harm came from the surprise snow event, outside of double the usual commute times this morning. Skies beginning to clear above 8000-8500 ft, but low clouds hanging on down below, with gradual clearing later this afternoon.

Weather should be warm and dry Wednesday through Friday. Medium range models are not in very good agreement on weather later this weekend into early next week. ECMWF brings a stronger upper trough into CO on Sunday, while the GFS has a weaker system coming into CO by late Saturday, with a second upper trough on Monday. The bottom line is that unsettled weather seems possible across CO as early as late Saturday into Sunday and possibly Monday as well. Snow level looks like it would be in the 7000-8000 ft range, so snow for upper foothills and rain for the plains. If the Euro solution is correct, snow levels could be down to plains level on Sunday. Either way, any accumulations still look to remain on the light side, maybe a few inches, higher amounts west of the Divide. Longer range models continue hint at additional precip chances next week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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A weak system will move to our north today and bring some mountain snow and breezy to windy conditions across much of the mountains and foothills. Generally 1-3 inches of snow, except 4-8 inches over the northern mountains where the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory. Some rain and snow showers will also be possible across the northeast plains this afternoon into tonight. Little if any accumulation expected on the plains. Foothills may see a few flurries, but no accumulation expected. West to northwest winds of 20-40 mph possible today into tonight. Winds should calm down on Tuesday.

Upper ridge will build across the western U.S. Tuesday into Thursday, so warming temps and less wind with abundant sunshine. Thursday temps will be the warmest of the week, with highs in the low 70's on the plains, and mid to upper 50's in the foothills. Temps will remain warm into the weekend, but slightly cooler with more clouds. Next system to affect CO according to medium range models would be late Sunday into Monday. Snow level would 9000 ft or above Sunday during the day, but lower to plains level by Monday morning as cold front moves through. Accumulations look light at this point, maybe a few inches at most. Models indicate the potential for some additional snow later next week as well. Nothing significant in the extended range at this time, but as we know, that can change.

For anyone interested, I was forwarded an interesting blog by a U.S. weather model researcher regarding the state of U.S. weather modeling and how the European weather modeling community has now far surpassed the capabilities of the U.S. The bottom line is that the U.S. has the potential to produce the best weather models, but we lack the funding, organization and leadership within NOAA to realize that potential. Link is here:
http://www.astropixels.com/blog/

From my perspective, it has always seemed odd to me that we have 3 organizations within the U.S. that run their own large weather modeling centers, the NWS in Silver Spring MD, the U.S. Navy in Monterey CA and the U.S. Air Force at Offutt AFB NE. We also have a robust academic research community that participates in this arena. If we took all of the money and resources used by all these organizations and had one central weather modeling center, I believe we could satisfy all the demands of the various users and use the resources to focus on the best modeling center in the world. The bottom line for this is a huge economic benefit to our country, as better forecasts, both in the short range and long range, save lives and money. For any forecast beyond 48 hours, nearly all U.S. forecasters now trust the ECMWF model more than any U.S. based model. I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad thing, it is just disappointing that the country that invented numerical weather forecasting cannot realize the potential that we possess. This in no way represents any sort of political statement, I am only speaking from a weather organization standpoint.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".