wxgeek's weather-Breezy and Warm, Precip on wknd-Update 3/15

Update Fri Mar 15

Warm and breezy today across the state with some mid and high clouds passing by, which will likely keep temps slightly below record levels, but still quite warm. Big change in the weekend weather. Models continue to trend towards a more soggy day Saturday, so it could be wetter and snowier at higher elevations than previously thought. Weak upper level trough will pass over the state on Saturday. This will combine with an easterly surface flow that will usher in low clouds into the plains and up against the foothills by late tonight into Saturday. The combination will provide ample low level moisture along with lift from the upper level trough to produce some decent precipitation across the mountains, foothills and plains. Heaviest precip will be north of I-70, but should extend south to at least the Palmer Divide. Mountains look to receive 3-6 inches of snow above 8000 ft. Snow level for the foothills looks to be 8000-9000 ft during the day on Saturday, lowering to 5500-6500 ft by midnight Saturday. Precip looks to begin late tonight over the central and northern mountains, and spread into the foothills and plains by Saturday morning. Precip could become moderate to heavy with isolated thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon. Precip could persist into Saturday evening and night for the foothills and plains, then dissipate after midnight. Models currently output between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of liquid equivalent across some areas. For areas above the snow level (8000-9000 ft) this could equate to 1-3 inches of wet and heavy snow, possibly even more for areas under heavy showers. Some roads above 8500 ft could have accumulations, so slick conditions may exist.

Sunday looks to start out mostly sunny, but a second and stronger upper level trough will pass to our north during the day. This system is likely to bring heavier snow to the mountains west of the Divide, where 4-8 inches of snow is possible. Snow will move into western CO Sunday morning and spread east into the foothills and adjacent plains by Sunday afternoon and evening. I believe most snow will be associated with the passage of a cold front, so we will likely only see a brief preiod of light snow or flurries through the foothills and plains, and would only expect lights accumulations of 1/2 to 2 inches. Snow level will begin at 7000-8000 ft Sunday afternoon and drop to plains level by Sunday evening. Foothills and plains could see some pretty gusty winds on Sunday, west to southwest ahead of the system Sunday morning, then west to northwest behind the system Sunday evening and night. Wind speeds of 15-35 mph will be common with some higher gusts.

Next week will start out cool and breezy on Monday, but we will see more sun and warming temps through Wednesday. Medium range models continue to suggest we will see cooler and unsettled weather from Wednesday night into next weekend. Hard to provide specifics now, but some decent snow may be possible late next week into early next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Warm and dry conditions, and breezy at times will persist across the state today and Friday. Temps running 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms, so lots of meting going on. This weekend we will see two weak weather disturbances affect our weather. First system skirts to our north Friday night into Saturday. As this first system passes to our east, High pressure at the surface builds into the Northern Plains which will create some easterly upslope flow across eastern CO beginning Friday night. Some snow showers will be possible in the mountains west of the Divide Friday afternoon, then the upslope flow will generate low clouds, fog and some drizzle Friday night into Saturday morning across eastern CO. With low level moisture in place, showers will become likely by Saturday afternoon across all of CO. Snow level looks to be in the 8500-9500 ft range during the day on Saturday, lowering to 7500-8500 ft Saturday evening and night. Not expecting much precip from the showers, but some areas at higher elevations could receive a dusting to an inch or two of snow by Saturday night. Not expecting much if any accumulation below 8000 ft.

Second system arrives Sunday. Some low clouds may linger across the plains and foothills Saturday night into Sunday morning, but should clear by late morning. Clouds then begin to increase Sunday afternoon. Snow will move into western CO, mostly the northern mountains, by Sunday afternoon with snow level 6500-7500 ft. Cold front will move across CO Sunday evening and bring a chance for some light snow or flurries to the foothills and plains with snow level down to plains level by Sunday night. Strong westerly winds will also accompany this second system with speeds in the 15-35 mph range. With westerly winds along the foothills, not expecting much if any accumulation, maybe a dusting.

Skies should be clear by Monday morning with temps beginning to warm. Upper ridge expected to build into CO early next week, so dry and warm conditions Monday into Wednesday. Medium range models bring an upper level trough into the Rockies by the middle of next week which will bring precip chances back into CO by Wednesday afternoon through Friday. At this time majority or precip looks to remain on the west side of the Divide, but if the track of the system moves farther south, that could change. In general, cooler temps and unsettled weather for Wednesday afternoon through Friday next week, then warmer and dry for next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Friday 3/15 Update