wxgeek's weather-Warmer w/ Some Showers this wk-Update 3/27

Update Wed Mar 27

Warming trend continuing today under mostly sunny skies across the state. Slight chance for a few showers to pop up over the High Country this afternoon with the snow level around 8000-9000 ft. Better chances for afternoon/evening showers will occur on Thursday and Friday as some Gulf of Mexico moisture begins to slip into eastern CO. Showers on Thursday and Friday could extend into the foothills and plains, with some isolated thunderstorms on Friday. Snow level rises to around 10,000 ft both days, so some areas could see their first liquid precipitation in a while. Saturday now looking like the best chance for precip for most areas across the state with the snow level around 9000 ft. Showers most likely after about noon extending into the evening hours as a weak cold front interacts with low level moisture.

Models in general struggle during the transition seasons (Spring and Fall), and models are struggling with the solution for Sunday into Tuesday of next week. Earlier in the week it looked like a Pacific system would move into CO early next week. Now models are suggesting that a cold arctic air mass will move south across CO Sunday night into Monday which would bring snow and very cold temps to eastern CO. If the latest solution verifies, we could see a few inches of snow from Sunday night til Monday evening, with the potential for some freezing drizzle on the plains and lower foothills. Models then keep Tuesday through next Friday mild and dry, and bring another system into CO the following weekend. I suspect model solutions will continue to change daily. The good news I see is that models suggest temps remaining at or below average, and addition precip will be around into the first week of April. This outlook would certainly help keep fire danger at lower levels.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Mon Mar 25

After a chilly start to the day, mostly sunny across the state with a gradual warming trend this week. Should be dry across the state today. As the week progresses, temps will gradually warm each day, and we will begin to see a gradual influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, with Dew Point temps rising into the mid 40's on the plains by the end of the week, certainly an indication we are now in Spring, even though our weekend weather felt a lot more like winter. As our weekend system moved east, snow was common across the Ohilo Valley and Mid Atlantic states which is not all that common for late March. Even below freezing temps are expected Tuesday morning all the way down to the Gulf Coast, so we are not alone in our cold weather experience.

As the Gulf moisture combines with some weak upper level disturbances in westerly flow this week we will see the chance for showers pop up across the High Country, beginning Tuesday afternoon. Showers mostly confined to the northern and central mountains with snow level 8000 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers become more numerous Thursday and Friday, with chances spreading onto the foothills and plains during afternoon hours. Snow level rises to around 10,000 ft, with isolated thunderstorms possible both days.

For the upcoming weekend, afternoon and evening showers possible both days, but less coverage than Thursday and Friday. Snow level remains around 10,000 ft with isolated thunderstorms still possible. Temps will be back near seasonal norms by Thursday into Sunday, so not a bad Easter weekend shaping up. At least ability to enjoy some outdoor activities will be possible.

Next significant system to affect CO will move from off the CA coast into the Desert Southwest early next week. This will bring increased precip chances to CO beginning next Monday into Tuesday. Since this system comes from the Pacific, it will be a much warmer system, more typical of our Spring systems. Precip moves into western CO Monday morning and spreads east across the state during the day. Snow level with this system currently looks between 8500 ft and 10,000 ft, but precip amounts could be fairly high, so either lots of rain or wet heavy snow depending on your elevation. Likely the timing of this system may change, as the Euro model already slower with this next system. Extended range models then calling for another, colder system, dropping into CO late next week with snow levels down to plains level potentially. The good news is that additional moisture appears pretty likely for next week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Wed March 27 Update