wxgeek's weather-Easter Forecast-Update 4/1

Update Mon 4/1

Yes, Aprils Fools Day and snow is in the forecast, really. Upper level low has moved into the Great basin currently centered over central NV. Upper low is forecast to move into west central CO Tuesday morning, then into southeast CO by Wednesday morning. Showers already spreading into western CO ahead of this system. Precip is expected to become more widespread this afternoon and spread into the foothills and adjacent plains late this afternoon and evening. Initial snow level will be 8000-9000 ft this afternoon, lowering to around 7000 ft by midnight, and close to 6000 ft by Tuesday morning. Expect 1/2 to 2 inches of snow above 8000 ft this afternoon into tonight. Most precip with first wave will occur before midnight, then a dry slot moves over into Tuesday morning. Main precip with this system looks to occur Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as upper low moves across CO, and creates best upslope flow aloft over eastern CO. Snow level should be 6500-7500 ft Tuesday afternoon, lowering to near plains level Tuesday overnight. Looks like 2-4 inches of additional snow possible Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Not expecting much accumulation below 7000 ft, but above that roads may accumulate some ice and snow. Precip should end by Wednesday morning.

Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday, then afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms possible this weekend with snow level around 10,000 ft. Models continue to suggest an impressive Spring system may visit us early next week. If models are correct, we could see significant snowfall at higher elevations in the foothills Monday into Wednesday next week, with snow possibly down to plains level by Tuesday. Still too early to get too excited, but residents should be aware of the potential for a significant snow event early next week, and the problems that such events can cause, such as power outages due to wet heavy snow breaking tree limbs over power lines.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sun Mar 31

A beautiful day across the state today, weather will change Monday and Tuesday. Upper level low currently spinning off the central CA coast will move east into the Great Basin Monday, and then move slowly across southern CO on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak cold front will move into eastern CO Sunday night, but cold air will remain in the Great Plains, so only moderate cooling expected across eastern CO on Monday. Easterly flow may bring some low clouds to eastern CO by Monday morning, but latest models keep the low clouds mostly east of I-25, so not sure if we will see any low clouds up against the foothills, does not seem likely but is possible. Precip will move into western CO associated with upper level low Monday afternoon with snow level around 8000 ft. Precip will move east into the foothills and adjacent plains by Monday late afternoon/evening. Precip becomes likely Monday night across most of eastern CO with snow level lowering to 5000-6000 ft, so snow possible down to plains level, but doubt any snow will accumulate below 6000-6500 ft. At higher elevations, 1-2 inches of snow possible by Tuesday morning, so morning commute on Tuesday could have slick spots. Showers and intermittent precip is likely to continue during the day on Tuesday, and into Tuesday night. Snow level during the day on Tuesday 6000-7000 ft, then lowering back to near plains level Tuesday night. An additional 1-3 inches of snow is possible during the day on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Precip should move off to the south and east by Wednesday morning, but Wednesday morning commute could also be slick in spots. So 2-5 inches of snow possible from Monday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Snow will be high water content snow, so typical heavy and wet Spring snow.

Some afternoon showers possible on Wednesday, primarily over the High Country with snow level around 8000 ft. Thursday looks warmer and mostly dry across the state. From Friday into Saturday, there will be a chance for showers in the afternoon and evening with snow level at or above 10,000 ft. Models then indicate the chance for a stronger upper level trough to move across CO Sunday into the following Tuesday. Snow level would begin around 9000 ft on Sunday, lowering to 6000-7000 ft next Monday and down to plains level by Tuesday. If models are correct this far out (unlikely), this system could bring significant precipitation to all of CO, and significant Spring snow to higher elevations. Certainly a system to keep an eye on.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sat Mar 30

Weak cold front will move through eastern CO tonight, so slightly cooler temps Sunday morning and some low clouds on the plains possible. Any clouds should clear by noon and be mostly sunny Sunday afternoon with a few isolated showers possible. A stronger cold front will move into eastern CO Sunday night, although models have backed way off the very cold air moving into CO now, as cold air remains mostly in the Great Plains. Eastern CO may see some low clouds Monday morning, but models now have precip arrving Monday afternoon/evening as an upper level low currently off the CA coast drifts east across CO Monday into Tuesday. Temps now look much warmer on Monday, and precip waits until late Monday, beginning across the High Country Monday afternoon and spreading east into the foothills and plains Monday night into Tuesday. Snow level now looks to be 6000-7000 ft, and models have some impressive precip amounts, up to an inch of liquid equivalent over the foothills. So if models have this correct, we could see 5-10 inches of snow above 7000 ft from Monday night into Tuesday evening. I'm still not that confident we will see that much snow, but model concensus is pretty good, so will see what they say Sunday. The bottom line currently is to expect snow above 7000 ft Monday night into Tuesday evening, so Tuesday commute could be slick at higher elevations. Below 7000 ft expect mostly wet conditions.

Models then keep things mostly dry next week, with some showers possible Wednesday and then again Friday into next weekend. Next real system affect CO looks to be the following week.

Looks like we will end March with 24 inches of snow, which is below the average on Conifer Mountain of about 32 inches. Our average for April is nearly 39 inches, so we still have a ways to go to get close to our average snowfall for the season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mostly Cloudy today across the state, and a nice mountain wave cloud has formed along the Front Range. Some isolated showers possible this afternoon, mostly across the High Country and foothills, but no significant precipitation expected. Snow level will be around 10,000 ft. Pretty similar day on tap for Saturday as well, some clouds and a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers to develop with temps near seasonal norms, and snow level remaining around 10,000 ft.

For the most part, Eastern Sunday should be a pleasant weather day with mostly sunny skies to start the day, some clouds in the afternoon and isolated afternoon and evening showers.

The big change will occur Sunday night when a cold front associated with an arctic air mass over the Northern Plains sweeps into eastern CO. Behind the front will be much colder temps, low clouds and upslope flow. Light snow along with the chance for freezing drizzle will occur after midnight into Monday. As cold air moves up along the foothills, expect fog and low visibility to occur Sunday night and Monday. This feature will combine with a weak upper level trough moving in from the Pacific on Monday, which could enhance precipitation during the day on Monday into Tuesday morning. Freezing level during the day on Monday should hover between 6000 and 7000 ft, then lower to plains level Monday night into Tuesday morning. Normally if this was only from the arctic front, we would only see a dusting of snow, but with the enhancement from the upper level trough from the west, we could see 1-3 inches of snow at higher elevations. The Monday morning commute could be slick and slow, especially with fog and low visibility combined with freezing drizzle/snow. Monday evening commute could have some snow and slick roads at higher elevations as well.

Tuesday through Thursday should be dry with warming temps next week. Next chance for precip will be Friday into next weekend, then more precip chances the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Easter update

Bump for 3/31 Update

Bump for 4/1 Update