After a very cold start to the morning, temps struggling to get above freezing today. Some snow showers have developed across northeast plains and some over Park county. Flurries to persist into the evening hours, mostly across higher terrain, then dissipate after sunset. For Thursday, weak upper level system to move across CO which will increase chances for showers, mostly across the High Country morning into afternoon, then will move into the foothills and Urban Corridor late afternoon and evening. Snow level 7000-8000 ft, but only very light accumulations expected for the foothills, maybe an inch or two in the High Country. Friday will be very similar to Thursday, with chances for afternoon and evening showers, extending into the plains.
Temps finally begin to warm back to near seasonal norms by Saturday as an upper level ridge build across CO. Saturday looks mostly dry across the state, with variable mid and high clouds through the day. Some westerly winds developing in the afternoon along the foothills, southerly winds on the plains. Sunday will also be mild, with variable clouds, and chances for precip increase across the northern and central mountains in the afternoon with snow level around 10,000 ft.
For next week, an upper level trough is expected to dig into the Great Basin early in the week and linger across the Rockies into about Thursday. This will bring increased precip chances to CO from Monday through Thursday. Monday, precip looks to remain west of the Divide, but moves into the foothills and plains Tuesday through Thursday. Snow level looks to be 7000-8000 ft Tuesday, lowering to plains level by Tuesday night into Thursday, so more snow and colder temps will be possible next week. Next weekend currently looks dry and mild.
I will share a funny story regarding mathematical models. As you all are hopefully aware by now, weather forecasting is primarily predicated on the use of numerical weather models. These models use the equations of motion and solve them using numerical approximations, which results in a non-exact solution. So I live with the limitations of mathematical models every day. Each year, my wife and I each pick winners in the NCAA March Basketball tournament. The loser has to buy dinner for the winner at a restaurant of the winners choice. It makes watching the tournament even more fun. This year, my wife was pressed for time to pick her bracket due to work obligations, so she used a method on a web site that used a mathematical model to pick the winners. When she initially told me this, I asked her since she never believes my forecasts, why she would use such a method that is fraught with errors. She explained the time constraint so we moved on. I will be enjoying a fine meal this year courtesy of my wife and the inaccuracies associated with mathematical models. I can finally enjoy a benefit of the limitations of mathematical models solving non-linear (chaotic) systems.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
