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wxgeek's weather-Snow forecast for mon-thurs Update 4/17
15 Apr 2013 12:44 #1
by RenegadeCJ
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
Update Wed Apr 17
Light snow and some freezing drizzle at lower elevations this morning will turn to moderate to heavy snow this afternoon and evening as upper level trough moves across the state. Strong northerly winds will accompany snow later today, so near blizzard and whiteout conditions are possible across eastern CO, especially east of I-25. Still looking at 6-12 inches in the foothills and Palmer Divide and 4-8 inches over the Urban Corridor with 3-6 inches on the plains. Heaviest snow will be from 2:00 pm through 9 pm, but snow will linger into the early morning hours Thursday. Likely to be a very tough commute back up the hill today, similar to Monday evening. Slightly colder temps today so hopefully less ice underneath, but still very slick. Commute Thursday morning also likely to be slow and slick in spots.
We should actually see the sun for quite a while on Thursday, so lots of melting although temps will remain cool and way below seasonal norms. Some flurries possible mostly west of the Divide Thursday afternoon. Friday will see warmer temps and mostly dry across the state. Weak upper level system will increase shower chances Saturday across the High Country and foothills, with snow level around 8000 ft. Only light accumulations expected, although heavier showers could drop a quick inch or two in areas. Sunday looks warmer and mostly dry across the state.
Models are now suggesting a stronger system will affect CO Monday and Tuesday next week. Snow looks to move into the High Country Sunday night and spread east into the foothills and adjacent plains with snow continuing most of the day on Monday into Tuesday morning. Still only looks like light amounts at this time, maybe 2-4 inches, but that could change. Snow will be all the way down to plains level with this system. Wednesday through next weekend looks warm and dry across the state with temps back above seasonal norms by late next week.
I will be attempting to fly to Dallas this afternoon, we shall see how that goes. Flight still showing on-time. Flying from a near blizzard in Denver into severe thunderstorms in Dallas, talk about a great flight for a meteorologist
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Tue Apr 16
Nice banded snowfall yesterday, certainly more than most models predicted. Some CSI (Conditional Symmetric Instability) associated with the jetstream set up which enhanced snowfall. Saw reports of 10-28 inches in the foothills, and 4-10 on the plains. As promised, break day today, then more snow Wednesday. Mix of sun, clouds and southerly winds today, with 20-30 mph winds mostly east of I-25 today, which caused some blowing snow earlier. Precip confined to the northwest portion of the state today.
Models in good agreement that upper level trough currently near the NV/UT border will move east across CO on Wednesday. Surface low currently in southwest CO will migrate into southeast CO by Wednesday afternoon which will provide some good upslope flow. Precip will intensify west of the Divide later today into tonight, so an additional 6-12 inches for the central and northern mountains above 7000 ft. For eastern CO, partly to mostly cloudy start to Wednesday with some low clouds and drizzle possible across the far eastern plains. Snow will move from north to south beginning after Noon on Wednesday. Brief periods of moderate to heavy snow are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, with 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates. Northerly winds of 15-30 mph will accompany this snow, so blowing and drifting snow will be present causing adverse driving conditions. Snow likely to persist into Wednesday night ending by Thursday morning. At this time, looks like an additional 3-7 inches possible for the foothills and Palmer Divide, with 2-5 inches possible for the Urban Corridor and plains. Also, pretty cold temps by Wednesday night for this time of year. Commute back Wednesday evening could be another tough drive. Thursday morning should be better, but still some slick roads until sun begins to melt snow.
Some flurries west of the Divide possible on Thursday, mostly sunny and cool east of the Divide. Temps warm back to near seasonal norms by Friday under mostly sunny skies across the state. Weak upper level disturbance will move across CO Saturday, bringing a chance for showers mostly west of the Divide, but some possible over the foothills and adjacent plains. Snow level Saturday 8000-9000 ft. Mostly sunny and warmer on Sunday.
Another weak upper level system moves across Monday, so more precip chances with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Only light, if any, accumulation expected Monday. The rest of next week looks dry and mild with temps bac to or above seasonal norms through Friday.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Mon Apr 15
Another complex Spring system affecting CO. Precip is banded along the jet stream aloft, so mostly confined to an area along and north of I-76 east of I-25 and along and north of I-70 west of I-25. Snow amounts so far in this area in the 3-10 inch range. Much lighter amounts south of this area. So using the jet stream position forecast for precip, this band should gradually move south this afternoon and evening, then retreat back north tonight and Tuesday and the upper trough digs into NV/UT. Snow level currently running around 4000 ft near the Wy border up to 6000 ft along I-70 and near 10,000 ft along US 50, although not much precip south of I-70 at this time. Precip band will make it south to somewhere between I-70 and the Palmer Divide by this evening, before retreating back north tonight. Areas along and north of the band will receive an additional 2-5 inches of snow through tonight.
By Tuesday morning, nearly all precip will remain west of the Divide, with clouds and perhaps some light drizzle across the plains and foothills with breezy southerly winds. Mountains will get nearly non-stop snow through Thursday morning, so amounts of 1-2 feet still likely across the High Country. Models are now suggesting that the second surge of precip from this system will not move into the plains and foothills until Wednesday morning as upper level trough moves across CO. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times on Wednesday persisting into Wednesday evening/night. This push looks to provide the heaviest snow for most areas of eastern CO. Latest output suggests the foothills could see 5-10 inches on Wednesday with 3-7 inches on the plains. Expect NWS may have to issue some advisories or warnings for Wednesday.
Some flurries Thursday afternoon possible in the High Country, and then mostly dry and warmer Friday across the state. We then slip into a much more typical Spring pattern with northwest flow aloft, As weak disturbances move across CO, we will see chances for showers increase, especially west of the Divide. Such disturbances look to move quickly across CO Saturday, Monday and Wednesday next week. Snow level for most of these looks to be around 8000 ft, but little if any accumulation expected east of the Divide.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Light snow and some freezing drizzle at lower elevations this morning will turn to moderate to heavy snow this afternoon and evening as upper level trough moves across the state. Strong northerly winds will accompany snow later today, so near blizzard and whiteout conditions are possible across eastern CO, especially east of I-25. Still looking at 6-12 inches in the foothills and Palmer Divide and 4-8 inches over the Urban Corridor with 3-6 inches on the plains. Heaviest snow will be from 2:00 pm through 9 pm, but snow will linger into the early morning hours Thursday. Likely to be a very tough commute back up the hill today, similar to Monday evening. Slightly colder temps today so hopefully less ice underneath, but still very slick. Commute Thursday morning also likely to be slow and slick in spots.
We should actually see the sun for quite a while on Thursday, so lots of melting although temps will remain cool and way below seasonal norms. Some flurries possible mostly west of the Divide Thursday afternoon. Friday will see warmer temps and mostly dry across the state. Weak upper level system will increase shower chances Saturday across the High Country and foothills, with snow level around 8000 ft. Only light accumulations expected, although heavier showers could drop a quick inch or two in areas. Sunday looks warmer and mostly dry across the state.
Models are now suggesting a stronger system will affect CO Monday and Tuesday next week. Snow looks to move into the High Country Sunday night and spread east into the foothills and adjacent plains with snow continuing most of the day on Monday into Tuesday morning. Still only looks like light amounts at this time, maybe 2-4 inches, but that could change. Snow will be all the way down to plains level with this system. Wednesday through next weekend looks warm and dry across the state with temps back above seasonal norms by late next week.
I will be attempting to fly to Dallas this afternoon, we shall see how that goes. Flight still showing on-time. Flying from a near blizzard in Denver into severe thunderstorms in Dallas, talk about a great flight for a meteorologist
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Tue Apr 16
Nice banded snowfall yesterday, certainly more than most models predicted. Some CSI (Conditional Symmetric Instability) associated with the jetstream set up which enhanced snowfall. Saw reports of 10-28 inches in the foothills, and 4-10 on the plains. As promised, break day today, then more snow Wednesday. Mix of sun, clouds and southerly winds today, with 20-30 mph winds mostly east of I-25 today, which caused some blowing snow earlier. Precip confined to the northwest portion of the state today.
Models in good agreement that upper level trough currently near the NV/UT border will move east across CO on Wednesday. Surface low currently in southwest CO will migrate into southeast CO by Wednesday afternoon which will provide some good upslope flow. Precip will intensify west of the Divide later today into tonight, so an additional 6-12 inches for the central and northern mountains above 7000 ft. For eastern CO, partly to mostly cloudy start to Wednesday with some low clouds and drizzle possible across the far eastern plains. Snow will move from north to south beginning after Noon on Wednesday. Brief periods of moderate to heavy snow are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, with 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates. Northerly winds of 15-30 mph will accompany this snow, so blowing and drifting snow will be present causing adverse driving conditions. Snow likely to persist into Wednesday night ending by Thursday morning. At this time, looks like an additional 3-7 inches possible for the foothills and Palmer Divide, with 2-5 inches possible for the Urban Corridor and plains. Also, pretty cold temps by Wednesday night for this time of year. Commute back Wednesday evening could be another tough drive. Thursday morning should be better, but still some slick roads until sun begins to melt snow.
Some flurries west of the Divide possible on Thursday, mostly sunny and cool east of the Divide. Temps warm back to near seasonal norms by Friday under mostly sunny skies across the state. Weak upper level disturbance will move across CO Saturday, bringing a chance for showers mostly west of the Divide, but some possible over the foothills and adjacent plains. Snow level Saturday 8000-9000 ft. Mostly sunny and warmer on Sunday.
Another weak upper level system moves across Monday, so more precip chances with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Only light, if any, accumulation expected Monday. The rest of next week looks dry and mild with temps bac to or above seasonal norms through Friday.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Mon Apr 15
Another complex Spring system affecting CO. Precip is banded along the jet stream aloft, so mostly confined to an area along and north of I-76 east of I-25 and along and north of I-70 west of I-25. Snow amounts so far in this area in the 3-10 inch range. Much lighter amounts south of this area. So using the jet stream position forecast for precip, this band should gradually move south this afternoon and evening, then retreat back north tonight and Tuesday and the upper trough digs into NV/UT. Snow level currently running around 4000 ft near the Wy border up to 6000 ft along I-70 and near 10,000 ft along US 50, although not much precip south of I-70 at this time. Precip band will make it south to somewhere between I-70 and the Palmer Divide by this evening, before retreating back north tonight. Areas along and north of the band will receive an additional 2-5 inches of snow through tonight.
By Tuesday morning, nearly all precip will remain west of the Divide, with clouds and perhaps some light drizzle across the plains and foothills with breezy southerly winds. Mountains will get nearly non-stop snow through Thursday morning, so amounts of 1-2 feet still likely across the High Country. Models are now suggesting that the second surge of precip from this system will not move into the plains and foothills until Wednesday morning as upper level trough moves across CO. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times on Wednesday persisting into Wednesday evening/night. This push looks to provide the heaviest snow for most areas of eastern CO. Latest output suggests the foothills could see 5-10 inches on Wednesday with 3-7 inches on the plains. Expect NWS may have to issue some advisories or warnings for Wednesday.
Some flurries Thursday afternoon possible in the High Country, and then mostly dry and warmer Friday across the state. We then slip into a much more typical Spring pattern with northwest flow aloft, As weak disturbances move across CO, we will see chances for showers increase, especially west of the Divide. Such disturbances look to move quickly across CO Saturday, Monday and Wednesday next week. Snow level for most of these looks to be around 8000 ft, but little if any accumulation expected east of the Divide.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
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