wxgeek's weather-More snow in our future-Update 4/22

Update Mon Apr 22

Cold front has moved through northern CO late this morning with banded snow moving south behind the front. As upslope flow forms behind the front snow will persist into Tuesday morning for most of CO east of the Divide, with some fog along the foothills this afternoon into tonight. Snow from this system will be from a combination of relatively shallow ( up to 12-14,000 ft) upslope flow, and banded CSI (Conditional Symmetric Instability) snow associated with a strong (130 mph) jetstream moving across CO. Heaviest snow will be associated with the CSI bands that will occur from this afternoon through about 2 am Tuesday. Lighter snow will continue into Tuesday morning, with some showers persisting, especially along the foothills, into Tuesday afternoon. Conditions should clear by Tuesday evening across the state.

Now for snow amounts. NWS has upgraded the earlier Winter Weather Advisory along the foothills to a Winter Storm Warning from Noon today through 6 am Tuesday for 8-14 inches of snow, and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Urban Corridor and adjacent plains for 4-7 inches of snow. WWA also in effect in the mountains for 5-12 inches of snow. I personally believe the Winter Storm Warning is a little overdone, and the WWA would have sufficed for the foothills. In general, I agree with NWS amounts, although I think most foothill areas will receive from 5-10 inches of snow from this system, with some areas receiving up to 12 inches where the banded CSI snowfall settles in. 3-7 inches for the Urban Corridor seems appropriate with highest amounts on the west and south side of town. Downtown Denver and more eastern areas probably in the 2-4 inch range.

Roads mostly wet this afternoon, with slush beginning to accumulate above 7000 ft earlier. By evening with heavier snow bands, all roads likely to become a mixture of wet, slush, snow and ice with more ice and snow at higher elevations. Travel will be difficult overnight and into early Tuesday morning. Lots of snow and ice packed roads for the Tuesday morning commute. I believe by Tuesday afternoon, roads will be in much better shape.

By Wednesday mostly sunny but cool, with some showers, mostly over higher terrain with snow level around 7000 ft. Thursday temps begin to warm, although we could see more showers develop especially west of the Divide in the afternoon. Snow level around 10,000 ft. Friday through Sunday look mostly dry and warm across the state, with temps mostly above seasonal norms by the weekend. Some showers possible early the following week, with a more late Spring type pattern. Snow level looks to be at or above 10,000 ft with isolated thunderstorms possible. Long range models do not indicate any more snow events below 10,000 ft through early May at this point.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sun Apr 21

Mostly sunny day today, some mountain wave clouds early then some cumulus later in the day, with only a slight chance for showers this afternoon, mostly west of the Divide.

Models in decent agreement on our system for Monday/Tuesday. Models bring an upper level trough down from the northwest across CO on Monday into Tuesday. Cold front will move from WY south across CO Monday morning, crossing I-70 between 9 am and Noon, and pushing south in the afternoon. Upslope flow will develop behind the cold front and bring snow to CO during the day on Monday, persisting into Tuesday morning/afternoon. NAM is lighter on snowfall, whereas the GFS, WRF and Euro are on the same page, so will follow consensus for forecast guidance. Snow level initially 6000-7000 ft early Monday, lowering to plains level by 3-6 pm. Initial snow below 7000 ft likely to melt, only sticking to roads Monday night. Above 7000 ft most snow likely to stick after initial melt on roadways, so expect ice to form underneath snow on roads.

For snow amounts, looks like the following:

Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 4-9 inches
Banana Belt: 3-7 inches
Metro Area and plains: 3-7 inches

Heaviest snow looks to be from Monday evening to Tuesday morning. Snow looks to lessen by Noon on Tuesday, dissipating during the afternoon. Roads will be fine for the Monday morning commute. By Monday evening, roads above 7000 ft likely to have slush, snow and ice, so commute could get tough, especially later in the evening. Travel becomes difficult overnight Monday night. Bu Tuesday morning, roads mostly snow and ice packed down to plains level. Melting will begin by 8 am to Noon, so roads should be in pretty good shape by Tuesday evening commute.

Wednesday through next weekend still looks mostly dry with temps back to or above seasonal norms by late next week into next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sat Apr 20

Showers moving across the High Country and foothills today, with some moving onto adjacent plains. Snow level around 8000 ft but not much sticking below 10,000 ft. Showers will dissipate after sunset this evening.

Sunday will be mostly sunny with warmer temps, and only a very slight chance for afternoon isolated showers. Next system is delayed a bit on today's models, and slightly stronger. Cold front looks now to hold off until Monday morning and move south through eastern CO. Snow will develop behind cold front Monday afternoon and persist into Tuesday afternoon. Heaviest snow looks to be Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Snow amounts now look higher, with the potential for 4-9 inches in the foothills, and 3-7 inches across the Urban Corridor and plains. Monday morning commute now looks ok, with the evening commute becoming slick. Tuesday morning commute could also be pretty tough. Snow should end by Tuesday afternoon.

The remainder of next week Wednesday through next weekend still looks mostly dry with temps back near seasonal norms.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mostly cloudy day today with temps struggling to reach seasonal norms. Weak upper level disturbance will move into CO tonight into Saturday morning. Precip will increase overnight west of the Divide in the High Country, where NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 3 am through Noon Saturday for 4-9 inches of snow. Travel could become difficult west across CO late tonight into Saturday morning. Showers likely to move east into the foothills and adjacent plains by Saturday afternoon, with snow level around 8000-9000 ft, lowering to 7500 ft overnight Saturday. Currently looks like showers to produce less than an inch of accumulation across higher foothill areas Saturday.

Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny, with warmer temps near seasonal norms. Stronger upper level trough will move from the northwest into CO on Monday, once again creating likely chances for snow across eastern CO. Cold front will move from north to south across CO Sunday night creating upslope flow behind the front. Upslope combined with lift from upper trough will generate snow across most of eastern CO beginning between midnight and 3 am Monday and continue through the day on Monday into Monday night. Snow level will be down to plains level, although temps will be near freezing in the Urban Corridor, so snow not likely to accumulate except on grassy surfaces. Above 6000-7000 however, currently looks like 2-5 inches of accumulation possible, with roads having a mixture of slush, ice and snow on them, especially above 8000 ft during the Monday morning and evening commutes. Snow should dissipate after midnight Monday night.

The rest of next week looks mostly dry and warmer. Tuesday will be cool in wake of system, then temps gradually warm into next weekend. Looks mostly dry across CO Tuesday into next weekend.

Our latest snowfall this week brought the monthly total on Conifer Mountain to 30 inches, so still slightly behind our average for the month of April of 37.5 inches. For the season we are now at 138 inches , which is 87% of normal for snowfall through the end of April for us on Conifer Mountain. We my not reach our normal snowfall this year, but a relatively cool and snowy February, March and April have really helped to keep the fire danger down this Spring. We have received 54 inches of snow this March and April so far, while last year, despite good early season snowfall, we only received 16 inches of snow in March and April, which led to a very bad fire season last year.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Saturday 4/20 update

Bump for Sunday April 21 Update

Bump for Monday 4/22 update