wxgeek's weather-Warmer and dryer weather ahead-Update 4/25

Update Thu Apr 25

Mostly sunny day today with some clouds and showers developing mostly across the southern half of the state. Some showers possible north to I-70, but majority of activity will be south of a line from Grand Junction to Colorado Springs. Snow level today at or above 10,000 ft. Friday should see warmer temps, mostly sunny skies with a chance for afternoon and evening showers, mostly south of I-70 and along the Divide. Isolated thunderstorms possible Friday with snow level around 10,000 ft.

Weekend looks glorious, temps 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms, lots of sun and no precip expected across the state. This weather should continue into Monday as well.

Models vacillating on the system for next week. Today's models keep the system farther north, so cold air does not move as far south into CO. Cold front still expected to push south into CO Tuesday evening/night and bring increased chances for showers Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. Snow level now looks to remain above 10,000 ft Tuesday, then lower to around 7000-8000 ft Tuesday night, and up to 9000-10,000 ft Wednesday. Precip from today's model runs looks meager, but expect models will continue to vacillate on a solution over the weekend. The rest of next week Thursday through next weekend looks warm and dry.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Apr 24

Brisk but mostly sunny day today. A few showers have developed along the Divide and may drift east towards the western foothills later this afternoon, but no accumulation expected with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Mostly sunny and slightly warmer Thursday with better chances for showers across the southern half of the state in the afternoon and evening hours. Snow level expected to be from 9000-10,000 ft Thursday. Some light accumulation is possible, mostly south of US 50. Models now indicate some showers will also be possible Friday afternoon, mostly west of the Divide and south of I-70 with snow level around 10,000 ft.

The weekend continues to look dry and warm across the state. Temps should be in the 70's across the plains, with mid 50's to low 60's in the foothills, so lots of melting this weekend. Monday looks to continue the warm and dry trend. In a cruel twist, latest models now suggest an upper level trough will move from the Pacific Northwest across CO next Tuesday/Wednesday. This would drag a cold front across the state and bring increased precip chances beginning Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. Snow level would initially be around 10,000 ft Tuesday afternoon, but lower to near plains level by Wednesday morning and remain around 6000-7000 ft during the day on Wednesday. This system now looks like it could produce a few inches of snow above 7000 ft next week. Then warmer and drier weather expected from next Thursday into next weekend.

As stated in another thread, we have received around 35 inches of snow this April, which is still below the average for April on Conifer Mountain of 38 inches, as April is our snowiest month of the year on average. Hard to believe we have received over 80 inches of snow in previous April's (1999) and 74 inches in 2009, more than double what we received this year. Thunderstorm season is not far off, gardens will be planted, patio furniture will be put out, and memories of snow and cold will fade away until September.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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After a more winter like day today, there will be more sun and warmer temps in our future. Some light snow and flurries hanging on in the High Country and along the foothills into this afternoon, and should dissipate by evening. Another cold night tonight for late April with temps in the single digits most foothill locations and teens along the Urban Corridor. Wednesday will still be cool with snow on the ground, but mostly sunny and showers should be confined to the High Country with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Gradual warming trend will continue into the weekend with temps back at or above seasonal norms by Friday.

A weak upper level disturbance passes over CO Thursday, which will lead to greater chances for showers in the afternoon. Showers will be mostly confined to areas west of the Divide and south of I-70, although southern foothills could see a brief shower. Snow level Thursday 9000-10,000 ft. Friday through Sunday look dry across the state under mostly sunny skies and more Spring like temps. Should be a great weekend to be outside. Of course, for those new to the area, Spring is also known as the mud season. As recent snow melts, lots of mud in the high and back country. This is also why our water tends to have a brownish color in Spring, as runoff seeps into the aquifers. I take this as a good sign that we have some water replenishing our water sources, and the recent cool and wet weather has kept fire danger low.

Long range models indicate that an upper level ridge will build across the Inter-Mountain region next week, which will keep temps at or above seasonal norms. Some moisture is expected to be advected into CO, so we may see some afternoon or evening showers towards the middle to late next week. A more typical pattern of late Spring or early Summer. Snow level should remain above 10,000 ft, so it appears we are done with snow at least into early May. However, understand that we average 12 inches of snow in May on Conifer Mountain, so we are likely not entirely done with snow for the season. We also average 1/2 inch of snow in June, but only 6 of the last 20 years have had snow in June. The Conifer Mountain almanac now has us at 150 inches of snow for the year, which is 87% of our seasonal average of 172 inches. So we still have 22 inches to get to average, but Feb-Apr have made up for a very dry start to the season. Know that we are not out of the woods with respect to fire danger quite yet, as snow begins to melt off, and grasses remain dry, fire danger will increase until grasses begin to green up, which will move into higher elevations of the foothills in early to mid May. Fire danger in May and June will depend on how much precipitation we receive in those months. Fire danger usually decreases once the North American Monsoon begins in late June or early July and persists into late August or early September. Monsoon rainfall is very hard to predict in advance, as the signals that drive the monsoon are not well understood at this time.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 4/24 update

Bump for Thursday 4/25 Update