wxgeek's weather-Good Shower Chance All This Week-Update 5/9

Update Thu May 9

Upper level trough now elongated across southeast CO with most of CO under a moist northeasterly flow aloft. This will keep surface upslope flow and showers going most of the day across our state, with snow level around 8500-9000 ft. Isolated thunderstorms beginning to develop and will continue through this evening moving towards the west southwest, with small hail and gusty outflow winds. Snow level may drop to 7500-8000 ft in heavier showers and thunderstorms. Precip should gradually come to an end after sunset today as atmosphere begins to stabilize some. Above 8500 ft, and additional 2-5 inches of snow possible today into this evening.

Beginning Friday, we will see a gradual warming and drying trend across the state. Slightly wamer temps each day, and fewer showers each day through early next week. Temps by Sunday should be at or slightly above seasonal norms. Majority of shower activity will be along and west of the foothills this weekend. Snow level will rise to near 10,000 ft Friday, and up to about 12,000 ft this weekend.

Many areas of the state have picked up 1-2 inches of precip this week, which continues to help our moisture deficit. We are nearly at average snowfall for the season on Conifer Mountain now, and many foothill and Urban Corridor areas have received their annual average snowfall or higher now. Even the mountains are closing in on normal seasonal amounts. The only portion of the state still suffering sever drought conditions is the southeast section. Hopefully recent precip has at least aided in providing moisture for the early growing season. Grasses should be greening up soon at higher elevations and Aspens are beginning to bud, so greener scenery is not far off.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Tue May 7

Large upper level low currently centered near Tonapah, NV. Very broad circulation around this upper low, with the eastern Sierras getting an upslope storm, which is not very common. The Front Range is about at the eastern edge of influence from this system today, but showers will become more numerous and intense this afternoon and evening from the Front Range west. Storm motion today will be from the west. Isolated thunderstorms possible today across CO as atmosphere is marginally unstable. Showers should dissipate shortly after sunset today.

The real impact from this system will be Wednesday into Thursday. Upper low is expected to move to near the 4 Corners by Wednesday morning and hang around southwest CO through Thursday, before the low migrates back into AZ Friday. CO should see widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday into Thursday. Models outputting up to 2 inches of precip across portions of the foothills and plains during this period, so we could see localized flash flooding, especially across burn scar areas. Flow aloft becomes southerly to easterly by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, so as upslope flow becomes predominant, low clouds and fog likely to develop up along the foothills. Snow level will begin around 10,000 ft Wednesday afternoon, but lower to near 9000 ft by Wednesday evening, and could drop down to 8000-8500 ft Wednesday night. Models keep precip going overnight Wednesday night, so it is possible foothill areas above 8000 ft could pick up a few inches of snow from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. It is also possible for small hail, gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning to accompany thunderstorms during this period. Thursday afternoon will see more showers and thunderstorms, but should be less coverage and intense than Wednesday.

This pattern continues into the weekend with slightly warmer temps and less shower and thunderstorm activity Friday through Sunday, with majority of activity this weekend along and west of the Divide. Next week looks similar to this weekend early, with isolated afternoon and evening showers with temps back near or slightly above seasonal norms. Models suggest a cold front may skirt CO Wednesday which would increase precip chances, then mostly dry and warmer late next week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon May 6

Shortwave upper trough ejecting from parent upper low off the central CA coast will move across CO today. Substantial mid and high clouds ahead of this system will make for a mostly cloudy day today, and keep temps below seasonal norms. Shower activity already beginning across the high country with some thunderstorms already popping off. Showers and thunderstorms will make it east to the foothills and adjacent plains this afternoon and evening, although heaviest precip will remain along and west of the Divide. Precip should die down after sunset this evening.

CO should see slightly warmer temps and less precip on Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms still likely to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, but less extensive than today. Snow level expected to remain around 10,000 ft Monday and Tuesday.

Models forecast upper level low to drift east from central CA to near the 4 Corners region Wednesday. As the upper low gets closer to CO, precip chances will rise on Wednesday and Thursday, with precip extending across the entire state. Good thunderstorm chances Wednesday especially, with some heavy rain possible. Flash flood potential goes up for Wednesday, especially for areas with burn scars from last years fires. Precip could extend into nighttime hours Wednesday night. Similar situation for Thursday as upper low lingers near the 4 Corners region. Snow level Wednesday and Thursday could lower to between 8000-9000 ft in showers, especially overnight, so some foothill areas at higher elevations could see some light accumulations.

Friday and Saturday will again see afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms, but less extensive and intense than Wednesday and Thursday. Snow level rises back to near 10,000 ft Friday and Saturday with warmer temps.

Things begin to dry out Sunday, with warmer temps and mostly dry conditions across the state that should persist into at least Wednesday of next week. Some isolated showers possible later next week, mostly north of I-70.

In general, some good additional moisture expected this week. Models indicating at least 0.50 inches of precip for most areas Monday though Friday, with the potential for some areas to see 2-3 inches of precip this week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Despite CO being wedged between two upper level lows, one east and one west, we will see a fair amount of clouds this week along with good afternoon and evening shower chances Monday through Saturday. Best chances for the foothills and plains will be Wednesday through Friday, but chances will exist all week. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible all week, and some showers will produce brief heavy rain, with possible small hail and gusty winds. Some shower activity will persist into nighttime hours. Snow level generally at or above 10,000 ft during the week, although in heavier showers snow level may drop to 8500-9500 ft, although no significant accumulation is expected. In general, a fairly cloudy and moist week ahead, which will continue to keep fire danger at low levels.

Models indicate atmosphere will begin to dry out Sunday and into early next week, so warmer temps and drier conditions from Sunday into at least Wednesday of next week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Monday 5/6 update

Good Shower Chance...upgrade to GREAT shower Chance...well in Breckenridge right now, at least.

It is raining...and Lord, I sure hope those aren't snowflakes mixed in with the rain.

Bump for May 7 Update

Bump for 5/9 update