wxgeek's weather-Cooler with Some Precip This Wk-Update 5/28

Update Tue May 28

Just wanted to update the previous forecast to include some pretty gusty winds today through Thursday. Today south to southwest winds of 20-35 mph will be present across the state in advance of the upper level trough now over the Great Basin. Red Flag Warning is in effect today for much of south central CO, and fire weather conditions pretty bad across most of the foothills as low RH values in place with strong winds. Upper trough moves through CO Wednesday and winds will shift to west to northwest behind cold front with speeds in the 15-30 mph range, with a chance for some precip, so not as bad for fire weather as RH values slightly higher. Strong westerly winds continue on Thursday with speeds in the 20-45 mph range, combined with lower RH values another bad to critical fire weather day. The only missing ingredient this week is hot temps as temps will remain below seasonal norms through Saturday. Upper trough expected to linger across the northern Plains through Friday, so cool and breezy conditions expected across CO with only isolated showers Thursday and Friday. Temps will begin to warm up on Sunday with mostly dry conditions expected into early next week.

Long range models suggest our summer pattern will begin to establish itself by early June, with an upper trough along the West Coast, and upper ridge building into the southern Rockies and Plains. This implies warmer temps with our typical isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Hopefully everyone enjoyed the beautiful weather this holiday weekend, and remembered the sacrifices of the men and women of our armed services on this Memorial Day.

Some isolated severe storms on the far eastern plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers across portions of the high country and foothills. The weather this week will turn cooler as a vigorous upper level trough will move into the western U.S. and will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday will remain mild with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with temps near or slightly above seasonal norms. A cold front will move across CO on Wednesday and increase precip chances. Isolated severe storms will become possible as well Wednesday afternoon and evening, mostly east of I-25. Snow level should remain between 11,000 and 12,000 ft, but could lower to near 10,000 ft Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temps will be below normal from Wednesday through Saturday this week as the upper trough lingers over the Rockies. Precip chances lower, but isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening.

Temps should begin to warm back to or above seasonal norms by Sunday and continue to warm into early next week with mostly dry conditions. As snow has mostly melted below 11,000 to 12,000 ft, fire danger will continue to rise at higher elevations of the foothills. We really haven't had much precip the last half of May, and June is typically a relatively dry month, so ground fuels will continue to dry out until the Monsoon season begins.

As the upper level trough moves into the Rockies this week, severe weather chances will increase across the Great Plains Wednesday and move east into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Given the strong upper level dynamics, conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorms that will likely produce strong tornadoes this week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".