wxgeek's weather- Weather Outlook June 4-11-Update 6/7

Update Fri June 7

Showers and thunderstorms will pass through the foothills and onto the Plains through this evening, with some storms becoming severe east of I-25. Stroms will move from northwest to southeast under northwest flow aloft at 10-20 mph. Storms should end after sunset.

The weekend and beyond currently look warm and dry as upper ridge build into the central U.S. Temps will be from 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages wiyth little if any precip through next Friday. Thus, fire danger will be on the rise from this weekend through next week as some days will have low RH values and gusty south to west winds at times. Next chance for precip looks to be next weekend at this time. Long range models keep the upper ridge anchored in the central U.S, which is a very common summer position. No hint at this time of whether the North American Monsoon will be early or late, or of the forecast intensity. Looking at past data for ENSO nuetral conditions, no good signal one way or the other.

East coast getting drenched today from tropical storm Andrea. Coastal areas from the Carolinas north to New Englanmd will receive 5-10 inches of rain through Saturday evening as the storm slowly moves northeast along the coast. Areas of flooding likely with tidal surges and beach erosion.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Cooler temps today with more moisture in the air which should aid firefighters. Cold front has moved through eastern CO ushering in northeast winds and more moisture. Good chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, which will persist overnight tonight. Precip and low clouds will help fire weather conditions, with the exception of erratic and gusty outflow winds from any thunderstorms that develop. Overnight, clouds, precip and cool temps should greatly assist in fire fighting efforts.

Cooler temps and some lingering showers on Wednesday with easterly winds continuing. Only light precip expected. Conditions will begin to dry out with westerly winds coming back on Thursday with warmer temps, and only a slight chance for afternoon showers. Temps increase on Friday with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could approach severe limits on the eastern plains.

Weekend currently looks warm and mostly dry, so fire danger will begin to increase over the weekend and into early next week. Precip chances return by next Tuesday, but only the isolated afternoon variety with temps remaining at or slightly above seasonal norms.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Friday June 7 update