wxgeek's weather- Hot and dry weather for awhile-Update 6/13

Update Thu Jun 13

Not great news for fire fighters today as south to southeast winds are expected to pick up to 20-45 mph this afternoon and evening, shifting to south to southwest later this evening and tonight. Winds should quiet down after midnight. RH values generally below 20% during daytime hours, recovering overnight to 40-50%. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the foothills and adjacent plains this afternoon and evening, although very little precip is expected. Thunderstorms may cause dry lightning and erratic and gusty outflow winds. Slight chance for storms to become severe across northeast CO, basically east of I-25 and north of I-70.

Friday will be a slightly better day, although temps will remain well above seasonal norms and RH values again below 25%. Winds expected to be south to southwest on Friday from 10-20 mph. Another chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with not much precip expected.

Better conditions expected this weekend into Monday with cooler temps, although still above seasonal norms, lighter winds from the west and higher RH values. precip chances also increase with some measurable precip expected across much of the foothills and adjacent plains. Winds could become northwest to north Saturday afternoon/evening in the wake of a weak cold front which would reverse the direction of fires from what they have been.

By Tuesday into Friday of next week, temps climb back up, RH values lower and winds increase, so more dangerous fire conditions are expected next week. Full containment of the Black Forest fire currently not expected until next Thursday, so this fire is likely to consume more homes before full containment and control is achieved. Any new starts next week have the potential for explosive growth as well. The remainder of June unfortunately does not look very promising as upper ridge remains anchored over the southern Rockies/Plains which will keep temps above average and provide minimal precip. The North American Monsoon (NAM) is still a few weeks away, but the average daily dew points in AZ have climbed from the low 20's into the low 40's over the past several days, so it appears to be getting closer. A average daily dew point of 54 degrees F for 3 consecutive days signals the official start of the NAM. Meanwhile, parts of Europe are experiencing unprecedented flooding and the Midwest and East Coast have received 5-10 inches of rain the past week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Record high temps recorded in many areas today, with DIA reaching 99 degrees breaking the record for the date (formerly 97 deg F in 1952). Large and dominant upper ridge has settled into the southern Plains/Rockies and does not look like it will be moving anytime soon. Weak systems ejecting from an upper trough aloing the West coast will ride up and over the upper ridge to our north, so only minor cooling and slight increase for precip will occur as these systems ride over the top of the ridge. In general, long range models keep the upper ridge in place for most of June, so I would expect temps to be above average and precip to be scarce for the next 7-10 days at least. This will in turn continue to raise fire danger levels as surface fuels dry out. Red Flag conditions will exist when wind speeds increase periodically, as RH values are expected to remain on the low side. Precip chances will only increase if a frontal boundary can make it's way across CO and some moisture can be advected into the state. In the foothills, we really have not received any significant precip since early May.

This pattern is fairly common in June across CO, as most 100 degree days are recorded in June for many Colorado locations. Things really will not change much until the North American Monsoon begins, usually sometime from late June to early July. This will increase moisture and precip chances across the state and reduce fire danger levels usually through August.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Thursday, June 13 update