So by the end of today, the start of the North American Monsoon will be official. Tucson has had average dew point temps above 60 deg F that past two days, and today will complete the requirement of the average daily dew point being above 54 deg F for 3 consecutive days. Here in CO, we will see another round of thunderstorms today spread from the mountains to the plains during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper level High still centered along the AZ/NM border which has turned flow aloft over CO westerly. Storm motion today will be from the west northwest. Precip chances will remain high Sunday and Monday, then diminish slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, and then increase again late next week into next weekend.
Overall, our monsoon pattern has begun. Dew point and humidity values will be in general higher from now through August, so fire danger will be lower and precip chances will become a daily event in general. The position of the upper High will determine the amount of moisture being advected into CO. At times we will receive large moisture plumes that will create heavy rain, whilre other times just general afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Hope everyone was able to enjoy the 4th of July holiday. Upper level High currently centered along the AZ/NM border, and some sub-tropical moistrure is rotating around this feature that will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms the next 3 days. Activity will initiate in the mountains and foothills, and spread east into the Urban Corridor and adjacent plains each afternoon and evening. Flow aloft has become more westerly as upper High moves slowly back to the east, so storm motion today will be from the northwest to the southeast. Temps will be above seasonal norms due to warm air associated with proximity of upper level High.
North American Monsoon is getting closer. Tucson has two days this week where the average daily dew point exceeded 54 deg F, but did not make the third day to officially start the Monsoon season. Latest model guidance suggest the Monsoon is likely to officially begin either this weekend or early next week. Models also indicate the upper level High will continue to move farther east early next week into the southern Rockies, which will likely allow a better monsoonal flow from Mexico to transport moisture into CO, especially west of the Divide early next week into next weekend. This moisture will raise dew points and relative humidity values which will lower overall fire danger. However, with increased thunderstorm activity comes increased lightning, which can start wildland fires. Additional moisture from the monsoon tends to limit the explosive growth potential we have seen in June however.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
