wxgeek's weather: Weather Outlook for the Remainder of July

Warm and dry pattern expected across the state through Tuesday. Fire danger will be on the
increase for this period. Temps expected to be 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. Any precip will be confined to the very high terrain.

Beginning Wednesday, moisture will increase as the wayward upper trough that moved over us last week circulates around the periphery of the Western upper High and moved across CO from the west Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be more likely. For the remainder of the week, afternoon and evening storms will be possible into the coming weekend. Weak monsoon flow around upper High centered near the 4 corners region will ring some moisture into CO, especially western CO.

Longer range models indicate a return to hot and drier conditions for the following week as upper High moves into the Great Basin.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Thu Jul 18

Atmosphere over CO has more moisture today, although flow aloft still from the north northeast, so any storms that do form will likely move slowly to the south southwest. Heavy rain potential exists today due to available moisture in the atmosphere and slow motion of any storms that do form, as movement expected to be less than 10-15 mph. Most storm will likely form and remain over the High Country and foothills today due to slight westerly component of upper flow. Possible to see some storms form along the Urban Corridor, but not too much farther east. Hail up to 1 in, strong outflow winds and lightning likely in storms that form today.

A weak cold front will move into eastern CO tonight, which will cool temps slightly, and strengthen surface upslope flow overnight into Friday. This combination will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms from very early Friday morning (pre-dawn hours) into Friday evening. Friday looks to be a potentially soggy day across eastern CO. Storm motion will still be from the north, but precip is expected to develop across the plains and into the foothills west to the Divide. Very heavy rain is possible in areas on Friday, so flash flood threat will be present, especially across recent burn scars. Some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain on Friday.

Heaviest precip will move into southeast CO on Saturday as cold front sags south of the Palmer Divide, but more showers and thunderstorms will be possible across most of CO on Saturday as atmosphere remains quite moist. Storm motion Saturday becomes more westerly, so storms moving in their more usual fashion of west to east.

Upper ridge still forecast to rebuild over the Great Basin this weekend and drift over the central Rockies early next week. This translates to very warm temps and drier conditions from Sunday through about Thursday. Near record temps will be likely much of next week. Better monsoon flow looks to be possible by next Friday as upper High moves farther east into the southern Plains, which will allow moisture from Mexico to move north into CO. Thus, precip chances increase from next Friday into next weekend, and likely into the following week. Looks like most areas of the foothills will end up with normal to slightly above normal rainfall in July.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Jul 17

Dry, warm and breezy day across eastern CO today, with some isolated showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Divide. Wayward upper low that caused our precip Sunday and Monday now drifting slowly southwestward over southwest NM. Upper level pattern across the US will go through a significant change later this week. Large upper level High anchored over the Ohio Valley which has been causing excessive heat across much of the eastern US will begin to migrate westward late this week as an upper trough and associated cold front move from Canada into the Great Lakes. This cold front will sag south into CO and increase shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday across eastern CO. The upper level High will then re-build across the Great basin this weekend, then slowly move eastward into the central Rockies most of next week. This translates into our weather as follows...

Precip chances will increase over the High Country and into the foothills on Thursday, not expecting high rainfall amounts though. As the aforementioned cold front sags south into eastern CO on Friday, temps will cool and precip chances increase across eastern CO, with the potential for heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms. Moist airmass will remain in place Saturday, so more shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon and evening across all of CO. As the upper High begins to build on Sunday, atmosphere across CO will dry out and begin to warm, so precip chances look to remain mostly over the High Country on Sunday, with warmer temps. For next week, looks like temps will increase to near record levels Monday through Wednesday and little if any precip across the state. If anything, only across the highest terrain. This pattern of hot and dry should persist for most of next week. Longer range models suggest the upper High may move farther east the following week, which could open up a better flow on monsoonal moisture. Will have to wait and see how that transpires.

So outside of precip Thursday through Sunday, not much additional precip expected through the end of July at this point.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Jul 15
Upslope flow in July, not something we see often in eastern CO. Easterly flow across CO from the surface to 25,000 ft this morning, and with 1.5 inches of precipitable water, very moist atmosphere for CO. Rather unusual July pattern with upper level low currently centered near the TX panhandle will continue to move towards the southwest into NM Tuesday then continue into northern Mexico. Still chances for showers and thunderstorms today from about I-25 west, with activity moving westward. Skies should begin to clear later this afternoon and evening with precip moving west of the Divide by tonight.

Eastern CO will warm up and dry out Tuesday through Thursday. All shower and thunderstorm activity should remain west of the Divide with isolated activity. Upper level Ridge currently centered near Lake Erie will migrate westward and build back across CO later this week and then become an elongated ridge from the Great Basin to the Ohio Valley this weekend. This transition will allow more typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to return to eastern CO by Friday and continue into the weekend. Activity will also be possible across western CO.

Precip chances look to diminish early next week, with only isolated activity mostly across the High Country. Then precip chances look to increase late next week into next weekend. With the upper ridge expected to remain mostly over the Southwest, this will not tend to promote plumes of monsoonal moisture up into CO, so we should see more diurnal type activity which will limit heavy rainfall events through the end of July. Precip will still be possible, but not as extensive or heavy as when we have good plumes of moisture coming north from Mexico. Most foothill areas have received from 1-3 inches of precip so far in July, so a decent start to Monsoon season. Areas of AZ are off to a good start as well, with some areas at 5 times their normal precip in July.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".