Better chances today for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the mountain and foothills, with lower chances across the plains, except for the far northeast plains where some severe storms will be possible. Upper ridge currently centered near the 4 Corners region creating a more westerly to southwesterly flow across CO today. Weak cold front will pass to our north today, then sag into northeast CO tonight into Thursday. Don't expect too much cooling, although low level flow will become more easterly with better moisture in the wake of the cold front, thus storm chances will increase on Thursday, especially across the foothills and plains. Storms will be slow movers, so some brief heavy rain is possible.
By Friday, upper ridge begins to move east and strengthen over the southern Great Plains (KS/OK). This will create a better monsoon flow from the Gulf of Mexico across Mexico and up into CO on Friday into the weekend, and a tropical system is still expected to form across southern Baja on Friday, then move northward along the Baja coast through the weekend. This could also help to import additional moisture into the Inter-Mountain West over the weekend. The forecast issue is how far east will the upper ridge build. If the center stays closer to CO, precip activity will move farther west over UT and NV, whereas if it builds slightly farther east, then CO (especially western CO) will receive plenty of precip. Right now leaning towards the ECMWF solution that builds the ridge farther east, so expect good precip chances across CO from Friday into Monday. If the GFS is correct, then this weekend will be hotter and drier. Either way, expect temps to remain above average through most of next week as upper ridge stays anchored over the Plains than drifts back across CO by late next week. Hence, warm to hot temps expected through next weekend, and precip chances diminish late next week as upper ridge moves back over CO.
The only hint of any cooler weather comes towards the end of the first week of September, but such a longs ways out, will have to wait and see.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
