wxgeek's weather-The Dry Out Begins-Update 9/18

Update Wed Sept 18

Upper level trough will pass to our north today into Thursday and drag an associated cold front into eastern CO this evening. Ahead of this system, warm temps and breezy southwest winds will assist in drying things out. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will exist across the mountains today and move east with cold front later this evening across the foothills and onto the plains tonight. Any precip expected to be light (less than 0.25 inches), so should not adversely impact flooded areas. Winds will become north to northeast tonight after cold front passes and temps will be cooler on Thursday. Some isolated showers possible on Thursday, mostly along the foothills and Palmer Divide where upslope flow will aid in lifting moist air.

Upper ridge then builds back across the state Friday and Saturday leading to warm temps and dry conditions statewide. Next upper trough will pass to our north on Sunday evening, so southwest winds will increase ahead of this system Sunday, and isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the mountains and foothills Sunday afternoon and evening. Dry and warm weather for Monday and Tuesday next week.

Models continue to advertise a much stronger upper level trough will move across CO next Wednesday and Thursday. Latest runs are even stronger with this system than previous runs, so will need to watch future models runs. If current forecast is on track, system would move into western CO late Wednesday and into eastern CO on Thursday. Precip amounts look to be in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range, with snow levels lowering to somewhere between 9000 and 10,000 ft during the day on Thursday, and possibly lower Thursday evening and night. Hence, some foothill areas could see the first snow of the season next week. Higher Mountains will certainly be dusted with snow. As always, long range forecasts will change between now and then. System could be stronger or get washed out. Should have a better handle on the system by late this weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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After our historic rainfall event of the past week, drier and warmer weather is on tap for the next week. Atmosphere is still very moist given all the ground moisture, but drier air aloft is moving into the state. This translates to some isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today, especially from the foothills west, but some could pop up through the Urban Corridor and adjacent plains as well. Any storms would be slow moving, so isolated moderate to heavy rain is possible in these cells along with small hail. Any storms should not last long after sunset this evening. Awoke to some snow on Mt. Rosalie and Evans this morning, so winter is not too far off.

Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly on Tuesday, which means warmer temps and any precip should remain along and west of the Divide on Tuesday. Weak upper trough passes to our north on Wednesday, which will increase south to southwest winds across the foothills and plains and warm temps. Normally in September these conditions may spur a red flag warning, but this week they are welcome to help dry things out. As associated cold front moves across CO Wednesday, some showers and thunderstorms are possible from the foothills to the plains. Best precip chances look to be across the northeast plains Wednesday evening.

Conditions should remain mostly dry with temps near seasonal averages from Thursday through the weekend. As another upper level trough passes to our north on Sunday, southwest winds increase and chances for precip increase mostly west of the Divide, although some showers could be possible into the foothills Sunday afternoon and evening.

Mild and dry conditions to persist into early next week, before what appears to be a stronger upper level trough moves into CO Late Wednesday into Thursday next week. This system currently looks like a good early Fall system that could bring precip to most of CO as it passes. It also looks to have enough cold air to lower snow levels to 9000-10,000 ft, so it could bring the first snow of the season to higher elevations of the foothills. Of course, still to far away to bank on, but an indication that Fall is beginning and Winter is not far away.

It will take a while for areas of CO to return to normal. After the flood waters recede, lots of repair and rebuilding will be required, and much if it may have to wait until next Spring. Hopefully all of those affected will have shelter and support through the ordeal. CO residents have dealt with a lot of adversity from Mother Nature recently, but have also shown great resiliency in dealing with these events. For those of us to be fortunate enough to not be impacted, the abundant moisture this past week has helped to re-charge underground aquifers and gave plants and trees in the forest a much needed deep drink of water. Drought is a condition that has been removed in a large area of the Front Range and foothills, yet still persists in some areas of our state.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Sept 18 update