wxgeek's weather-Warm/Dry Start, Cold/Snow end-Update 10/3

Quick update as I prepare to board a flight back to CO. Potent system will begin to bring precip too western CO this afternoon and evening. Cold front moves across the state tonight, bringing much colder temps Friday. Heaviest precip will remain west of the divide and north of I-70 as upper low tracks across the WY/CO border. Snow level begins around 10,000 ft today, lowering to 8000 ft early Fri morning then down to 5500 ft Friday afternoon. Snow amounts of 5-10 inches possible in the northern mountains, 3-7 in the central mountains and northern foothills. For foothill areas south of I-70, pretty limited snow, so maybe 1-2 inches with areas farther south maybe only seeing a trace or a few flakes. Winds become gusty from the northwest Friday as cold air moves in. Very cold temps in the low 20's to upper teens possible Saturday morning. This is a major winter storm for WY and parts of western NE and SD where 10-20 inches of snow is possible, especially WY where travel is likely to be impacted.

Much nicer weather Sunday into early next week. Developing tropical storm will enter the Gulf Friday and intensify to a hurricane Saturday and hit land somewhere between New Orleans and Pensacola Saturday evening.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Tue Oct 1

Another beautiful day across the state with temps well above seasonal norms. Wednesday should be similar with some breezy winds beginning to develop ahead of our next system. This system is currently in the Gulf of Alaska and will move onshore in teh Pacific Northwest Wednesday and into the Great Basin on Thursday. Models show a variety of solutions, but the general trend is to move the system through the Northern and central Rockies late Thursday into Friday. Until the system moves onshore, exact track will be disputed by models. Euro is deeper and slower, GFS is in the middle, and NAM is faster and farther north. Overall, dynamics of system will be strong, but best dynamics will remain mostly north of CO in WY. That said, northern and central mountains still expected to receive some snow, and foothills and northeast plains should also get some precip, albeit limited. Heaviest precip still looks to remain north of I-70. Precip should enter northwest CO late Thursday, move into the mountains Thursday night into Friday morning, and into the foothills and plains late Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow level still expected to start off around 10,000 ft Thursday afternoon, lowering to near 8000 ft Thursday night, and down to 5500 ft Friday morning. Snow amounts of 3-6 inches possible northern mountains, 1-4 inches central mountains, maybe 1-2 inches northern foothills and a trace to an inch or so southern foothills and Palmer Divide. Doubt much snow will stick to pavement below 7500 ft. Precip will last til about noon on Friday, then move quickly east with some gusty northwest winds behind the system. Strong southwest winds will exist ahead of system on late Wednesday into Thursday evening, then change to northerly winds behind cold front that will move through Thursday night. Some upslope flow is expected Thursday night into Friday morning, so fog and reduced visibilities likely in the foothills.

Dry and warmer weather on tap for the weekend, although a cool start is likely Saturday morning with temps in the 20's likely, possibly teens in some areas. Any plants that have survived this far will be goners after this weekend. Warm and dry weather expected to persist into early next week, then models not sure what will transpire after that.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

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Update Mon Sep 30

More sunny, warm and dry weather will persist across CO through Wednesday. Upper flow will remain westerly to southwesterly this week which will aid in warming the air as it moves east of the Divide. Temps will remain 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages early this week. Heavy precip will continue across much of the Pacific Northwest this week causing minor to major flooding as storms move onshore every 24-36 hours.

Later this week, some changes will occur. Upper level trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest farther south into the northern and central Rockies. Models continue to have differing solutions as to how this system will affect CO. Each model run has a slightly different solution, so confidence is not very high at this point. Overall consensus is that upper trough will move into the northern/central Rockies Thursday afternoon into Friday and bring precip chances. As system approaches, southwest winds will increase aloft and at the surface. Cold front will move across CO Thursday night and bring precip to the mountains late Thursday, then into eastern CO Thursday night into Friday. Majority of precip currently looks to stay north of I-70 as surface low forms over northwest KS. Snow level will begin 9000-10,000 ft Thursday afternoon, lowering to 8000 ft by Friday morning and possibly down to 6000 ft Friday afternoon. Highest precip amounts near the WY border, with lighter amounts farther south. With current forecast, would only expect a light dusting at best for most foothills areas, maybe 1-3 inches for the northern mountains. If the upper trough digs farther south, then precip amounts could be much higher farther south, but best guess at this point is system will remain farther north and limit precip south of I-70. Precip should end statewide by Friday evening, with some gusty west to northwest winds Friday night into Saturday morning.

Similar to past weekend, cool start Saturday but warming under sunny skies and dry and warmer Sunday into early next week. Next precip chances would be Wednesday/Thursday next week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 10/1 update

Bump for 10/3 update