wxgeek's weather-Weather Outlook Oct 14-20-Update 10/15

Update Tue Oct 15

Some light snow currently falling over the Urban Corridor and foothills as northeast upslope flow persists. Snow flurries also continuing across the mountains today, although any accumulations are expected to be light. Upper trough rotating across UT and CO today into tonight before existing east on Wednesday. This will cause snow and cool temps to persist across much of the state tonight into Wednesday morning. Highest precip amounts this evening and tonight are expected across the area south of I-70, and west of I-25, with best chances across higher terrain. Southwest, central and south central mountains could receive an additional 3-7 inches of snow. Foothill areas south of I-70 could see anywhere from a dusting to an inch or two of snow by Wednesday morning. Temps will remain below seasonal norms through the end of the week.

Wednesday will feature more sun by afternoon so slightly warmer temps, although a cool start to the day. Models in better agreement on next upper level trough to swing down from the north. Push of colder air associated with cold front will move into northeast CO Thursday afternoon and push south Thursday night. Currently looks like best chances for precip will be from the Divide east and north of I-70, although precip likely to make it's way south to the Palmer Divide and southern foothills. Snow level initially around 7500 ft Thursday afternoon, lowering to plains level Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow amounts currently looking light, from a dusting to an inch or two for most locations. With colder temps in place this week, roads above 7500 ft may begin to see snow accumulation and ice Thursday night into Friday morning, so could be slick in spots for the Friday morning commute. Conditions improve during the day on Friday.

For the weekend through next week, weather statewide currently looks dry with temps back near seasonal norms or slightly above as an upper ridge builds along the West Coast keeping all storms well to our north.

I will likely not be posting any updates until next week as I be heading to Las Vegas to enjoy some golf in warmer weather with good friends.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Oct 14

Rather dynamic weather pattern across the country for October, which can be sometimes a boring weather month. Upper level trough currently extends over the northern and central Rockies and one impulse will eject northeast today, while another piece of energy will move down from the north across UT and southwest CO Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep temps well below seasonal norms through at least Wednesday across the state, and provide chances for precip. Precip today most likely in areas north of I-70 across the mountains and eastern plains. Decent band with thunderstorms and some hail went through this morning, and another band will move across this afternoon and evening. Severe storms will be possible across portions of the Central and Northern Plains today into tonight. Snow level today between 7500-8500 ft and will lower to 5500-6500 ft overnight, rising to near 7500 ft Tuesday. As next upper trough moves south into UT on Tuesday, any precip will likely remain west of the Divide and focus on the southwest mountains into Tuesday night. As upper trough rotates across southern CO on Wednesday, precip will be focused over the southwest, central and south central mountains, although the southern foothills and Palmer Divide could see a stray shower or two with snow level near 7500-8500 ft.

Depending on the model you believe, Thursday and Friday will either be dry and cool, or cool with some precip. I am leaning towards the cool and dry solution at the moment, although if any precip develops it would be light and mostly across the higher terrain. The coming weekend currently looks dry with temps back near seasonal norms across the state.

Next week currently looks dry with temps at or slightly above seasonal norms. Next chance for precip looks to be next weekend.

Tropical Storm Octave currently off the southwest Baja coast and is expected to move across the Baja peninsula on Tuesday, spreading abundant moisture ahead of the system to the northeast, which will bring heavy rain to portions of TX Tuesday and Wednesday.

Just in case anyone is interested, our seasonal snowfall on Conifer Mountain is currently at 2.5 inches. Our average for October is 14.2 inches. We have had 6 Octobers with less than 5 inches of snowfall since 1993, and our highest October snowfall was 50.75 inches in 2009. Highest snow totals in October are usually associated with an El Nino event, so with ENSO Neutral conditions this year, not too surprising to have below average snowfall during our Fall months.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".