wxgeek's weather-Weather Outlook Oct 17-27-Update 10/20

Update Sun Oct 20

Snow beginning to move south into northern CO along with some light snow developing in the foothills and Palmer Divide. Models remain consistent in bringing snow across most of eastern CO from the Divide east into tonight. Heaviest snow for the foothills and Urban Corridor looks to occur between 3 pm and 9 pm today, with snow ending sometime after midnight. Snow level begins around 7000 ft but will lower to near plains level by this evening. Snow amounts remain similar:

Northern and Central Mountains: 3-6 inches
Foothills: 1-4 inches
Palmer Divide: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor and plains: 1/2 - 2 inches

Roads above 7000 ft likely to be snow and ice packed tonight and early Monday morning, so a little extra time for the morning commute will be in order. Roads below 7000 ft will be wet with some slush, but road swill quickly melt and dry after sunrise as conditions become mostly sunny on Monday. Evening commute should be fine.

Models continue to keep CO dry and mild through next weekend and beyond. Really nothing storm wise on the horizon into early November at this time. We will likely end October with below average snowfall.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Nice start to the day today, then clouds will increase this afternoon as an upper trough from western Canada and associated cold front move south into CO. Cold front will move south across the state this afternoon and evening, with some northeast upslope flow developing behind front. Precip will begin across northern portions of the state this afternoon, and spread south this evening and tonight. Precip looks to stay north of I-70 through the evening commute, with precip moving south to the Palmer Divide by about midnight. Snow level will begin around 6000-7000 ft this afternoon, but lower to plains level by tonight. Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the northern and central mountains for 3-7 inches of snow, mostly east of the Divide. For the foothills, currently looks like 1-3 inches of snow possible, with 1-2 inches for the Urban Corridor, and 1-3 inches for the northeast plains. Highest snow amounts look to remain north of I-70 with this system. Snow should persist into Friday morning then begin to dissipate after about noon on Friday. This may cause some slick roads for the Friday morning commute, especially above 7000 ft. May be a mix of wet and some slush below that. Roads should be fine for the evening commute back up on Friday.

After this round of precip, models indicate an extended dry period with mild temps through the end of October. Upper ridge currently in the eastern Pacific will slowly move east into the Inter-Mountain west and keep the storm track well to our north through the end of October. Of course, model forecasts can change, but this pattern has been fairly consistently forecasted, so would not expected much, if any, precip for the remainder of October. Weekend weather looks very nice, cool start with mild days and abundant sunshine. This pattern looks to persists through next week with temps rising back to or slightly above seasonal norms.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Oct 20 update