wxgeek's weather-Weather change-Update Oct 29

Update Tue Oct 29

Fog and low clouds beginning to dissipate from south to north over the plains, Urban Corridor and upper foothills. Low clouds will hang on longest in the lower foothills and northeast plains, but southwesterly winds aloft will help scour out most low clouds by late this afternoon and evening. Upper low centered over northeast NV this morning and is forecast to elongate into an open upper trough by tonight and spread from central WY to southern NV by Wednesday morning. Upper trough finally moves into eastern CO by Wednesday evening. At the surface, cold front and precipitation have moved into western CO this morning with precip remaining west of Vail Pass, but front and precip will slowly move east into eastern CO this evening and tonight. Snow level currently 7000-8000 ft but will lower to 5500-6500 ft tonight and remain about that level on Wednesday. Best chance for precip in the foothills and Urban Corridor will be as front moves through this evening and tonight, between 6 pm and 3 am. Any precip will be on the light side with a dusting to maybe an inch or two in favored areas. Mountains will pick up 4-9 inches today and tonight, so travel west across the state could be difficult at times. A little break Wednesday morning, then more showers as upper trough moves through the state on Wednesday with mountains west of the Divide picking up an additional 1-3 inches, with only a trace to an inch expected in the foothills Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Strong west to northwest winds of 15-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning, so any snow that did fall could blow and drift. A blustery day on tap for Thursday with cool temps and breezy westerly winds. Some flurries may continue over the northern and central mountains Thursday into Thursday night with maybe 1-2 inches of additional snow on west facing slopes. Friday will remain cool and breezy under mostly sunny skies across the state.

For the weekend, short wave upper ridge moves over CO which will provide warmer temps and dry conditions with temps back at or above seasonal norms. Next system approaches from the northwest and will begin to increase clouds late Sunday. Models forecast precip to move into western CO during the day on Monday and spread across the entire state Monday night. Snow level 5000-6000 ft Monday, lowering to plains level Monday night. Snow looks to continue across the state on Tuesday and continue overnight dissipating by Wednesday morning. This system could produce some decent snow amounts if current forecast holds together, so be prepared for some winter driving conditions next week. Models then return to a warmer and drier pattern later next week into next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Oct 28

Pretty drastic change from 24 hours ago across portions of eastern CO as cold front has moved into northeast CO and pushed low clouds and much cooler temps east to the foothills and south to the Palmer Divide. Low cloud layer extends up to 8000-9000 ft currently, so reduced visibilities in the foothills. Deep upper level low for October currently centered in west central NV and is bringing snow to the Sierras, Great Basin and northern Rockies. Models now in agreement that the closed upper low will move slowly northeast into northeast NV by Tuesday morning, then diminish in intensity as upper low moves into central WY Wednesday morning with an upper trough trailing into eastern UT. At the surface, precip will move into western CO late tonight into early Tuesday morning and slowly spread east during the day on Tuesday. Snow level looks to be 6000-7000 ft and NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for mountain areas west of the Divide on Tuesday. Snow amounts of 4-9 inches possible west of the Divide accompanied by west to southwest winds of 20-40 mph, so difficult travel west of the Divide on Tuesday. Cold front will push east into eastern CO by Tuesday evening and bring a chance for showers east of the Divide into Tuesday night. Any precip looks to be brief over eastern CO, so not expecting any accumulation beyond a dusting to a half inch for the foothills Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. A brief break Wednesday morning before the upper trough moves across the state Wednesday afternoon which will bring additional snow to the mountains and another and likely better chance for precip to eastern CO. Snow level will lower to 5000-6000 ft Wednesday as cooler air aloft moves across. Still not expecting much beyond a dusting to maybe an inch or so of accumulation Wednesday into Wednesday evening, although any snow seems to snarl the commute, so could be a slower drive back up the hill on Wednesday evening. Stiff westerly winds of 15-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning across eastern CO, then gradually diminish Thursday late morning but remain breezy and cool for the remainder of the day with similar conditions expected on Friday.

Temps warm back to seasonal norms for the weekend under mostly sunny skies across the state. Next weather system is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest into CO by early next week which will bring a chance for snow to nearly all areas of the state from Monday night into Wednesday morning. Another system from the northwest may affect the state later next week as well.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Oct 29 update