wxgeek's weather-Some snow then rtn to dry/mild-Update 11/5

Update Tue Nov 5

Outside of the mountains and far eastern plains, pretty wimpy system as only a dusting in some foothill areas, and no snow for most. Mountain areas picked up 2-5 inches from reports I have seen, and 1-3 inches on the far northeast plains. Ptretty good early seasosn snowstorm for SD and western NE. As this system moves east, potential for severe storms from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday. For CO, last precip moving across the far eastern plains and a few flurries persistsing in the mountains. Clearing statewide by tonight with cool temps. Some gusty northwest winds likely to develop tonight into Wednesday with wind speeds of 15-35 mph possible and gusts to 50 mph. Warmer and drier weather persists into this weekend and most of next week now. Weak system to pass to our north Friday which could bring some flurries to the northern mountains and slightly cooler temps. Tenmps rebound to above seasonal norms this weekend under mostly sunny skies.

Latest medium range models dig an upper trough off the West Coast next week, which will keep CO under upper ridging, meaning dry and mild weather while the West Coast receives quite a bit of precip, especially the Pacific Nortwhest. Next chance for precip for CO looks to be next Friday, but even that is questionable as a brief upper trough moves to our north quickly. Beyond that mostly dry conditions into mid November.

So far on Conifer Mountain we have received 7 inches of snow for the season. Normal through October is 18 inches, and normal through November is 33 inches. It is looking like a dry start to our snow season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mon Nov 4

Cold front passed through last night providing 1-4 inches of snow in the mountains and a dusting to the western foothills and cooled temps some 20 degrees from the weekend. Upper level trough currently in western UT and will move east today and Tuesday with trough axis passing through eastern CO Tuesday evening. Precip currently confined to southwest UT but is forecast to spread into western CO later this afternoon and evening with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Precip will spread east of the Divide tonight with snow level 5000-6000 ft except up to 8000 ft in southeast CO. Snow looks to begin just after midnight in the foothills with heaviest precip between midnight and 8 am. Because flow aloft remains southwesterly until trough axis passes, limited precip expected in the foothills and Urban Corridor due to downslope wind component. Some models predicting very little accumulation for the foothills and Urban Corridor with higher amounts farther east. There should be strong enough upper level dynamics to support light accumulations, but this will not be a significant system east of the Divide. Mountains will receive decent amounts, and NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas east of the Divide to the Front Range crest for 4-8 inches, and for the far northeast plains for 2-5 inches. From all the model data, here are my forecast snowfall amounts:

Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 1-4 inches
Urban Corridor and plains south of I-70: 1/2 to 2 inches
Northeast plains: 2-4 inches

Snow likely to persist during the day on Tuesday into late afternoon and evening hours, but with limited additional accumulations. Commute likely to be slow and slick above 6500 ft Tuesday morning, with mostly wet roads below that with some slush possible. By Tuesday evening roads should be in pretty good shape.

Later this week, expect mostly dry conditions except for some snow in the northern mountains possible Friday as an upper trough passes to our north. Weekend looks dry and mild statewide. Next precip chances now look to be next Tuesday/Wednesday, with mostly dry conditions expected beyond that.

I hope everyone has exercised their privilege to vote in Tuesdays election.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sun Nov 3

Cold front associated with northern branch of upper trough just beginning to move into northwest CO this afternoon. Snow will develop along this front and spread east to the Divide this evening and tonight. Most snow will remain west of the Divide and north of I-70 with this initial system. Perhaps 2-5 inches of snow expected overnight with snow level near 6000 ft. Conditions will clear statewide by Monday morning with much cooler temps behind cold front. The southern branch of upper trough will dig southeast into UT Monday and move east across CO by Tuesday. This second system will bring snow to western CO Monday afternoon with snow level 6000-7000 ft and push east into the foothills and plains Monday night with snow level lowering to plains level by Tuesday morning. Snow looks to begin in the foothills between 6 pm and midnight, with heaviest snow between midnight and 8 am. Snow will begin to taper off Tuesday afternoon, ending by Tuesday evening. Latest guidance continues to diminish snow totals across the state. Latest snow forecast looks like this:

Central and Northern Mountains: 5-10 inches
Southwest and Southern Mountains: 3-7 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 1-4 inches
Urban Corridor and Plains: 1/2 to 2 inches

Still could be a slow and slick commute Tuesday morning, with conditions improving by the return commute Tuesday evening.

Some flurries possible in the high country Wednesday and again Friday, but dry amd mild east of the Divide. Mild and dry conditions expected for next weekend, with next precip chances early next week. In general, global upper level pattern appears to be changing with a long wave upper trough setting up along the West Coast, which puts CO under upper level ridging. We may see some moisture west of the Divide as systems move out of the West Coast upper trough position, but they will tend to die as they moves east, so looks like mostly dry conditions east of the Divide for CO into mid November. With limited moisture lately, dry surface fuels, fire danger will be elevated until we have better snow cover.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sat Nov 2

Beautiful day across the state today with plentiful sunshine, warm temps and some southerly breezes. Actually hard to find a cloud anywhere in the state. Sunday will start off similar, with some clouds increasing from the northwest during the day, and stronger southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon. Temps will be 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.

Big change will take place Sunday night as cold front pushes through the state from northwest to southeast. Some snow will accompany cold front west of the Divide Sunday night, mostly central and northern mountains with about 1-3 inches possible. Latest models in good agreement on track and intensity of upcoming system that has moved onshore over the Pacific Northwest today. Latest guidance suggest lower snow amounts as upper trough now expected to move through as an open trough and faster. Monday looks to start off cool but mostly dry across the state. Clouds will increase from west to east during the day with snow developing Monday afternoon west of the Divide with snow level around 6000 ft. Precip will move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor Monday evening and to the plains Monday night. Snow level should lower to plains level by midnight Monday night from the Palmer Divide north, and around 6000 ft south of the Palmer Divide. Snow could become moderate to heavy at times Monday night from midnight to about 7 am Tuesday. Snow looks to continue Tuesday until about noon then begin to diminish Tuesday afternoon and evening, ending statewide by midnight Tuesday night. Amounts currently look like this:

Central and Northern Mountains: 6-12 inches
Southwest and Southern Mountains: 3-7 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Coirridor: 1-4 inches
Plains: 1-3 inches

Tuesday morning looks to be the tough commute, conditions should improve by Tuesday evening for the return commute. Travel across the mountains to be difficult from Monday night to Tuesday afternoon.

Mostly dry and cool on Wednesday with some flurries in the central and northern mountains, maybe 1-2 inches of additional accumulation on west facing slopes.

Remainder of next week looks dry and mild across the state into next Saturday. Next precip chances look to be next Sunday, then some more precip chances the following week. Long range models not in very good agreement, so hard to gauge precip chances.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

A little surprise snow in the western foothills this morning as snow crept a little farther east than expected. The remainder of the day should be cool and breezy but snow should be diminishing in the mountains today and ending this evening. Some mountain areas picked up an additional 2-6 inches overnight.

The weekend continues to look dry and mild across the state, with some gusty southerly winds developing Saturday afternoon in the foothills and plains, and then again Sunday afternoon. Temps should be 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms.

Next system currently in the Gulf of Alaska and will move onshore into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday and into the northern Rockies and Great Basin on Sunday. Latest models are in good agreement and split the upper trough into two pieces. Northern branch moves into Saskatchewan on Monday, while the southern branch digs and develops in southern UT then moves across CO on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move from the northwest across CO Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow moves into western CO late Sunday night into Monday morning with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Easterly upslope flow develops behind cold front on Monday bringing low clouds into eastern CO and the foothills while a surface low develops across southern CO. Some drizzle or freezing drizzle could develop across the plains and into the foothills Monday during the day into Monday evening. By Monday night, snow develops across all of CO with moderate to heavy snow possible at times, especially in the mountains and possibly the foothills with snow level lowering to plains level. Snow continues during the day on Tuesday statewide diminishing by Tuesday evening and ending by Wednesday morning. Latest models have heavier snow amounts than yesterday, with 6-14 inches in the mountains, 3-7 inches in the foothills and 2-5 inches on the plains. If models continue to intensify southern branch, snow totals could go higher. On the other hand, if models move this trough through faster, less snow. I tend to believe the slower and more intense solution at this time, so would expect a decent snow event for most of CO next week. Fortunately the state has adopted mail in ballots for the election next Tuesday, so weather should not play a part in voter turnout. I would expect travel to become difficult across CO Monday night into Wednesday morning, so commute flow could be much slower than usual Tuesday especially, but Wednesday morning could be slick and slow as well.

Models then indicate dry and warmer conditions to return Wednesday through Saturday next week. Next precip chances will be late next weekend, mostly west of the Divide, then again the following week Tuesday through Thursday a potentially significant snow event could take shape, but way too early to determine how likely that is.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Blustry day across the state today with some snow in the northern and central mountains, dry and windy most other areas. Winds will calm down some tonight and Friday but remain breezy, with some snow lingering in the mountains on Friday, but diminishing by Friday evening.

Weekend weather looks dry and mild across the state, with temps back near or above seasonal norms. Some gusty southerly winds likely to develop Saturday afternoon and persist into Sunday afternoon. Next system is poised to affect CO Monday and Tuesday. Models of course having their usual disagreements, but general trend is for an upper trough to move from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin on Sunday, then continue across CO Monday into Tuesday. Models differ whether to move the upper trough through as an open trough or develop it into a closed low near the 4 Corners, which would delay the passage a bit. Taking a smoothed approach, looks like a cold front will move into northeast CO early Monday and bring low clouds and cooler temps in it's wake. Precip looks to develop sometime during the day on Monday in western CO, then move into eastern CO by late afternoon or evening on Monday. This system will be cold enough to have all precip fall as snow across the state, with maybe some rain across southeast CO late Monday. Precip turns to all snow everywhere Monday night with snow across most of the state Monday night through Tuesday evening, clearing by Wednesday morning. Amounts will depend greatly on the track and intensity of the upper trough/low. Currently looks like 3-7 inches for mountain areas, 2-5 inches for foothills and 1-3 inches for the Urban Corridor and plains, but those amounts could change a lot between now and next week. Travel could be difficult from Monday evening through Tuesday night, and expect winter driving conditions.

Models clear things out and warm things up Wednesday through Saturday next week, then bring another system into CO late next weekend into early the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

bump for Nov 2 update

Bump for Nov 3 Update

Bump for Nov 4 update

Bump for Nov 5 Update