wxgeek's weather-Dry/mild thru the weekend-Update 11/8

Update Fri Nov 8

Windy day across much of the state today as a system to our north moves into the Northern Plains. Wind speeds of 25-50 mph with gusts to 70 mph occurred this morning across the Front Range foothills and higher mountains. My station on Conifer Mountain recorded a 64 mph gust this morning. Wind speeds will remain strong but will diminish this afternoon and become much calmer tonight. Some mountain wave clouds will persist into tonight. I even spotted some K-H wave clouds over the Kenosha Mountains around noon today, they have a distinctive wave shape and occur when there is strong vertical shear in the atmosphere.

This weekend weather continues to look fabulous with mostly sunny skies, light winds and temps 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. This weather should continue into Veteran's Day on Monday as well. A cold front is forecast to push into eastern CO Monday afternoon/evening which will bring easterly upslope flow and low clouds to eastern CO up into the foothills to 8000-9000 ft. Some drizzle and/or freezing drizzle will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning, with reduced visibility in the foothills. Low clouds should dissipate Tuesday afternoon. Warmer temps and drier conditions will return next Wednesday and Thursday. Models have a weak system that may bring a slight chance for some very light precip to CO next Thursday night into Friday. Next weekend looks mostly dry, with the next chance for precip late next weekend into early the following week, but models keep nearly all precip west of the Divide. As stated previously, mostly dry and mild conditions look to persist into late November.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Thu Nov 7

Another beautiful Fall day across the state, with just a few clouds drifting by. A system from the Pacific Northwest will pass to our north on Friday, but will impact wind speeds across the high country and foothills from late tonight through Friday afternoon. Westerly wind speeds of 15-35 mph will be likely with some gusts in the 50-60 mph range possible with highest winds speeds north of I-70 near the WY border. Adjacent plains and Urban Corridor may see some gusty westerly winds of 10-25 mph as well.

For Saturday through Monday, some very nice weather on tap. Temps 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms, light winds and lots of sunshine. Not so great for our snowpack, but let's just consider November a bust for snow for now. A cold front may move into eastern CO Tuesday which may cool temps back to seasonal averages. Very weak system may bring a slight chance of showers to the high country Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with snow level around 8000 ft. Next precip chance looks to be late next week into next weekend as an upper trough moves across southern CO. Still too early to have much confidence in this system, but currently looks to provide precip only to the mountains mostly south of I-70. Could develop into something better, but could also just as easy fizzle out. Overall, dry and mild pattern looks to persist at least through Nov 23, perhaps longer.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Nov 6

Cool and breezy day across the state, with some mountain snow, mostly central and northern mountains. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory through 9 pm for the Elkhead and Park mountains for 2-5 inches of snow. Other mountain areas may see 1-3 inches today. Strong northwest winds of 10-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph at higher elevations possible today as northwesterly jet stream passes over northern CO today. Winds and snow should diminish by this evening. Thursday through next Tuesday looks mostly dry, with temps generally above average. Some high clouds at times and breezy at times. A few mountain flurries possible Friday as upper trough passes to our north. Weekend temps should be 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies.

For next week, dry and mild Monday, then an upper trough will move down from the northwest mostly to our north and east, but a few showers could develop Tuesday afternoon and night across northern and eastern CO, but any precip would be very light from this system. Another system from the northwest expected to pass across southern CO on Friday and could bring a few showers mostly to southwest CO, but again any precip looks to be quite light. Long models models paint a rather dry and mild picture across most of CO into mid to late November at this time. Eerily familiar to last year when we only received 0.5 inches of snow in November after 7 inches in October.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".