wxgeek's weather-Mixed bag of weather this week-Update 11/13

Update Wed Nov 13

Warm and dry day across the state today, with temps 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms. Models have begun to refine the forecast for the next 3-5 days. Weak upper level trough will pass to the north of CO tonight, and the only impact will be to bring a few flurries to the northern mountains overnight, and to cool temps slightly on Thursday, back closer to seasonal norms. Next system will swing down from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Great Basin Friday, then across CO Friday night. This system will spread precip into western CO from Friday morning into Friday night with snow level 7000-8000 ft during the day on Friday lowering to 6000-7000 ft Friday night. No precip from this system is expected east of the Divide. The next system, expected to be the strongest of the series, moves from the Pacific Northwest on Saturday and across CO on Sunday. This system will be a decent snow maker for the northern Rockies, Great Basin and western CO. Snow continues over western CO Saturday with snow level 5500-6500 ft. Cold front pushes across CO Saturday night which will spread precip farther east into the foothills and adjacent plains, although any precip east of the Divide looks very light at this time. Snow level lowers to plains level by Sunday morning. Snow diminishes during the day on Sunday across the state, ending by Sunday evening. Much colder temps statewide on Sunday in wake of cold front.

The only chance for snow in the foothills will be from this last system, and as this system moves through as an open upper trough and winds aloft remain westerly, little if any accumulation is expected east of the Front Range crest. Western foothills could see a dusting to maybe an inch or two Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, but vast majority will remain west of the Divide. Mountains could see from 6-18 inches from Friday into Sunday afternoon from last 2 systems, so travel across the mountains could be difficult at times from Friday through Sunday evening, especially Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, as delays and road closures will be possible. For the Broncos game, snow will not be an issue, but temps will be cold, likely in the upper 20's to low 30's at the start and mid to lower 20's at the end.

Next week continues to look dry and mild statewide, with next precip chances next weekend. In general, November continues to look pretty dry and mild through the end of the month. We will likely see below average snowfall in most areas for November, falling further behind our average snowfall pace.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Tue Nov 12

Nice day across the state today in wake of yesterdays cold front that dropped temps some 25 degrees in 2-3 hours. Mostly sunny skies today with temps warming back to near seasonal norms. Upper ridge will build over CO on Wednesday which will warm temps above seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies. On Thursday, upper ridge begins to break down as a series of upper troughs will move from the Gulf of Alaska southeast into the Rockies. Timing and intensity of these troughs mostly in agreement with models, but some variations exist.

First upper trough moves to our north Wednesday night and really doesn't have much of an impact on weather, so dry and mild conditions look to persist on Thursday across the state. Next upper trough moves down on Thursday afternoon into Friday, and this system should bring cooler temps along with precip chances to the central and northern mountains from Thursday afternoon into Friday and Friday night. Snow level looks to be 6000-7000 ft with this system. Slight chance the foothills and Urban Corridor could see a few brief showers from Thursday night into Friday night, but currently does not look like any accumulation is likely east of the Divide. Perhaps 1-3 inches possible in the High Country.

The next system, which now looks to be the strongest, will move down from the Pacific Northwest on Saturday and begin to affect western CO Saturday afternoon and night. Snow level looks to begin around 7000 ft Saturday afternoon, lowering to 5000-6000 ft Sunday. Precip is forecast to spread east into eastern CO Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with snow level down to plains level by Sunday evening. Models currently bring this system though as an open upper trough and move it through pretty fast, so right now appears to be limited snowfall potential for the foothills and plains, but if the system slows and deepens, could be more snow potential. Will have to wait and see how models evolve this system later this week. Could impact the Broncos Sunday night game against the Chiefs.

Models then brings dry and mild weather back into the state for all of next week, with next precip chances next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Mon Nov 11

A sincere thanks to all who have served and/or are serving in our armed forces, your dedication and struggles are greatly appreciated.

Low clouds associated with cold front have moved into far northeast CO this morning, and clouds will continue moving towards the southwest and west at 10-20 mph, so cloud deck should be near the I-25 corridor between 3-6 pm, and up against the foothills between 6-9 pm. Cold air mass is pretty shallow, so top of the cloud deck may only extend up to 7000-8000 ft in the foothills. Because the cloud deck is shallow, it may not be deep enough to produce any drizzle, but temps still expected to drop below freezing this evening and tonight, so the possibility of freezing drizzle and/or ice fog still exists in the foothills and Urban Corridor, so drivers be a little extra cautious tonight and Tuesday morning. Clouds should retreat by late morning Tuesday, so mostly clear with warming temps Tuesday afternoon.

CO will be under northwesterly flow aloft through the weekend, and a few weak upper level disturbances will be embedded in this flow. First disturbance will move over CO Wednesday night into Friday morning, so a slight chance for snow will exist during this period, with the vast majority of any precip remaining west of the Divide, but there will be a chance for some snow in the foothills and Urban Corridor Thursday into Friday morning. Any amounts would be very light, so generally less than an inch of accumulation expected, with many areas seeing no snow.

Next disturbance moves across CO this weekend, and primarily affects the northern mountains Saturday night into Sunday. Right now this system looks very dry, so no real accumulation to speak of. Upper ridge then is forecast to move into the western U.S. next week, so right now models suggesting dry and mild weather to persist for most of next week across CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Beautiful day across the state today. Monday will start out nice, but will take a turn Monday afternoon as back door cold front associated with a surface High pressure center moving south from central Canada into the Northern Plains. Temps will drop 10-15 degrees as front moves from east to west into eastern CO. Low clouds, fog, drizzle and freezing drizzle all possible from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning from the foothills east. Top of the cloud deck expected to be from 8000-9000 ft in elevation in the foothills, so in areas within the cloud deck, fog and reduced visibility will create travel issues along with freezing drizzle that could make roads icy. Clouds are expected to dissipate Tuesday afternoon with mostly clear skies by Tuesday evening.

Wednesday will begin nice, but clouds will increase across western CO in the afternoon, leading to a chance of showers in the central and northern mountains with snow level near 8000 ft. Precip moves east into eastern CO Wednesday night with snow level 5000-6000 ft, although any precip expected to be light with best chances north of I-70. Prehaps a dusting to an inch or so possible in the foothills. Conditions clear by noon on Thursday with dry conditions across the state.

Mostly dry on Friday with temps near seasonal norms, except some flurries possible across the northern mountains. Saturday looks dry and mild statewide. Next system looks to bring precip to western CO Sunday afternoon with snow level near 6000 ft, then precip moves into eastern Co Sunday night into Monday with snow down to plains level. This systenm has the potential to drop several inches of snow across much of CO, but still too far out to get too excited, as model trend this year has been to highlight decent snow events in the 3-7 day forecast preiod, only to dry things out as the system nears. The remainder of next week looks mostly dry, with next precip chances the following weekend according to long range models.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Nov 11 Update

Bump for Nov 12 Update

Bump for Nov 13 update