wxgeek's weather-Mtn snow this wknd, dry/mild next wk-11/16

Update Sat Nov 16

Snowy day for western CO today, windy day elsewhere in the state. Southwest mountains picked up 5-12 inches overnight, while central and northern mountains picked up 2-6 inches with a dusting into the western foothills. Colorful advisory map of CO today from the NWS, with Winter Storm Warnings for the central and northern mountains, Winter Weather Advisories for the southwest and Front Range mountains, and a High Wind Warning for the foothills. Snow is beginning to increase west of the Divide this afternoon with snow level 5500-6500 ft, and will increase and push east to the Front Range Crest this afternoon and evening and overnight with snow level lowering to 4000 ft overnight. Snow will be accompanied by westerly winds of 25-50 mph making for very difficult driving conditions across western CO today and tonight. Road closures a distinct possibility through Sunday morning. Western foothills may again see a dusting to an inch or so of snow through Sunday morning, but the rest of eastern CO remains dry and windy. Westerly winds will increase this afternoon into tonight with sustained wind speeds of 25-50 mph, and stronger gusts that could reach 75-90 mph in favored prone areas. Highest winds will be north of I-70, but all foothill areas could see downed trees and power lines causing power outages, and the potential for fire starts. Heaviest snow in the mountains will be from 3 pm today through midnight tonight, with snow diminishing Sunday morning and ending by noon. Winds will begin to die down late Sunday morning, but remain quite strong at higher elevations through Sunday evening. At lower elevations, winds will die down by late Sunday afternoon. Looks like an additional 6-14 inches for the central and northern mountains, with 3-7 additional for the southwest mountains and areas between the Divide and Front Range Crest.

For next week, Monday and Tuesday look dry and mild statewide. By Wednesday, models beginning to suggest the potential for an upper level trough to move slowly to our south through Friday, so the chance for precip is now back in the forecast for next Wednesday through Friday. Snow level would be in the 6000-7000 ft range for most of the period. Too early to get specificcs nailed down, but this is a change from previous forecasts that kept the state dry through all of next week. Longer range models also suggest precip chance for Thanksgiving weekend now as well.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Fri Nov 15

Upper trough passing through the Great Basin is just beginning to bring precip into far western CO. Precip will spread east this afternoon into tonight reaching as far east as the Front Range Crest, and perhaps some light snow to the western foothills with snow level 6500-7500 ft today, lowering to 5500-6500 ft overnight. Breezy day in the foothills ahead of this first system. Vast majority or precip will remain on the west side of the Divide. System is rather moisture starved, except for some sub-tropical moisture streaming up from the Southwest, which is why southwest mountains will receive highest snow totals from this system. Heaviest precip will be from 3 pm today through 3 am Saturday. Next system will move down from the Pacific Northwest fast on the heels of today's system and bring increased precip to western CO beginning Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Once again, majority or precip remains west of the Divide, with central and northern mountains getting the most snow from this second system. Snow level Saturday will remain from 5500-6500 ft lowering to 4500-5500 ft overnight. Western Foothills could once again see some light snow Saturday evening and night. Snow totals from today through Sunday look like this:

Southwest Mountains: 8-18 inches
Central and Northern Mountains: 6-14 inches
Western Foothills: Trace to 2 inches

Not much snow east of the foothills from these systems. NWS currently has several winter advisories out. Winter Storm Warning for southwest mountains, and Winter Weather Advisory for Central and Northern Mountains. NWS also has a High Wind Watch out for the foothills from Saturday evening to noon on Sunday. Strong westerly winds will develop after cold front moves through Saturday evening, with wind speeds of 20-45 mph likely, with gusts of 50-65 mph possible. Strongest winds likely to be north of I-70, but southern foothills could still see some very strong winds, which could cause power outages and downed trees. Higher fire danger also exists now with very dry surface fuels and no snow on the ground. Any fire starts could spread very rapidly late Saturday into Sunday morning.

Precip should be mostly done by Sunday morning with only a few lingering flurries in the mountains. Winds should also die down Sunday afternoon, but temps will be below seasonal norms, so a blustery kind of day.

Next week begins dry and mild through Wednesday, then chance for snow west of the Divide Thursday and Friday with cooler temps east of the Divide. Models suggest next weekend and Thanksgiving week will remain dry and mild.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Thurs Nov 14

Mostly sunny and mild day again across the state today, with temps near seasonal norms today. Only a few light snow showers last night across the mountains.

Next upstream system currently in the Pacific Northwest will begin to bring precip to western CO Friday morning. Snow level looks to begin between 6500-7500 ft, lowering to 5500-6500 ft Friday night. Snow will increase in intensity Friday afternoon into Friday evening west of the Divide and persist overnight into Saturday morning. Some light snow will make it east to a line from Longs Peak to Mt. Evans to Kenosha Pass (Front Range Crest) Friday evening and night, but vast majority stays west of the Divide. Western foothills could see a light dusting, but not much more than that. Southwest mountains will be favored with this system, where 6-12 inches of snow could fall Friday into Saturday morning, 3-7 inches possible for the central and northern mountains. Snow will diminish some early Saturday, then next system will move into CO Saturday during the day. Snow increases west of the Divide during the day on Saturday with snow level 6000-7000 ft, lowering to 5000-6000 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning. Models have shifted this system farther north in recent runs, so heaviest snow Saturday into early Sunday should be central and northern mountains. Snow will persist into Saturday night and Sunday morning, then begin to dissipate Sunday afternoon. Southwest mountains will see 3-7 additional inches Saturday, with central and northern mountains seeing 6-12 additional inches Saturday into Sunday. Again, snow Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning will push east to the Front Range Crest, with western foothills seeing from a dusting to maybe an inch or two, but many foothill areas and the Urban Corridor and plains will likely not see any snow at all. Also, temps now not expected to be as cold on Sunday, with colder air staying farther north. Temps will be below seasonal averages Sunday, but not as cold as previous model runs suggested. Strong west to northwest winds of 15-35 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph will develop Sunday behind cold front, so it will feel blustery. Winds expected to die down Sunday evening.

Next week looks mostly dry and mild. A few weak system will skirt to our north, so some mountain snow possible Wednesday and again Thursday into Thursday night, but snow should be confined to higher elevations of the central and northern mountains, and little accumulation expected. No precip expected for the foothills and plains through next weekend now, and extend range models don't show anything promising through the end of November at this time. It seems ENSO Neutral conditions don't bode well for early season snowfall for eastern CO. We can hope for a MJO to visit us in December and provide more robust snowfall. Conifer Mountain snowfall sits at 7.0 inches for the season, our average at the end of November is 33 inches, so unless something changes, we are currently at 21% of average snowfall.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 11/15 update

Bump for Nov 16 Update