wxgeek's weather-Deep Freeze, then warmer-Update 12/6

- Update Fri Dec 6

Another frigid day across the state with temps this morning well below zero. Saw -27 at Walden this morning, with -15 at my home on Conifer Mountain. Temps today will remain mostly in the single digits in the foothills and Urban Corridor with some low teens possible. Winds may pick up this afternoon into Saturday, which will create very low wind chill values. Southeast winds of 10-20 mph possible on the plains and Urban Corridor Saturday. Temps expected to rise some on Saturday in advance of our next weather disturbance, so temps in the teens to low 20's expected Saturday in the foothills and Urban Corridor. Next system will begin to bring snow west of the Divide during the day on Saturday, with snow moving east to the Front Range Crest by Saturday evening. Models currently keep the foothills and Urban Corridor mostly dry, with only a slight chance for isolated flurries or light snow. Far eastern plains have a slightly better chance to see some light snow north of I-70. Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the mountains west of the Divide for 6-12 inches of snow Saturday into Sunday, so travel in the mountains may be difficult this weekend. Only expecting a dusting to an inch in the foothills, especially western foothills. Many areas in the foothills and Urban Corridor may see no snow from this system due to flow aloft remaining westerly, and only very weak dynamics aloft. As system passes Sunday afternoon, temps will again plummet so another cold night and day on Monday. Temps begin to moderate Tuesday with near normal temps next Wednesday through Friday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Northwest CO gets the Ice Box award today, saw -31 reported at Walden this morning, and -29 at Meeker. Not close to our state record of -61 at Maybell on Feb 1 1985. Arctic air will remain in place for a while as large upper trough remains over the Inter-Mountain West. Slight chance for isolated flurries will exist this afternoon into tonight, but any accumulation would be light with best chances for snow across southeast CO. As cold temps stay in place, winds will begin to increase this afternoon into Saturday creating very cold wind chill values. Temps may actually warm slightly on Friday and Saturday into the teens and lower 20's, but winds will make it feel just as cold or colder. Upstream disturbance rotating down the back side of upper trough will impact CO this weekend. Snow will move into western CO Saturday, with chances for light snow extending into the foothills and plains on Sunday. Currently looks like 2-6 inches possible west of the Divide, with a trace to an inch or two east of the Divide. So should not be a big impact east of the Divide with many areas not seeing any accumulating snow. However, as upper trough passes through CO Sunday, reinforced arctic air on back side of upper trough will drop temps once again Sunday night into Monday. Low temps Monday could be in the -10 to -25 F range across CO. Temps look to finally moderate from Wednesday on next week as upper ridge builds over CO. Temps should be close to seasonal norms Wednesday into next weekend.

Next precip chances look to be next Friday into next weekend. Currently looks mostly like precip will remain along and west of the Divide with westerly flow aloft. Extended range models suggest upper ridge will re-establish over the western U.S. which would keep temps close to seasonal norms and mostly dry across CO into mid December.

A travel alert for anyone planning travel into or through the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley or Ohio Valley today into Friday. System that impacted CO has moved east and will bring snow and freezing rain to a large part of the country. Portions of northern TX, OK, AR, TN, MO, KY, IN, IL, OH, WV, PA will have major travel impacts from today through Friday night. Specifically, OKC, DFW, DAL, MEM, LIT, CVG, PIT are expecting from 1/2 to 2 inches of ice accumulation and snow. This will cause major air travel delays and cancellations, as well as widespread power outages due to ice on trees and power lines. This will be a large and disruptive weather event. Similar event possible for early next week as our weekend system moves east on a similar track.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 12/6 update